Ruy Teixeira returns: to same drum he’s been beating for some time—the Democratic Party’s support among non-white voters is waning:
Democrats may have thought that they were on the right track in the wake of the “racial reckoning†of 2020. Surely if Democrats went all-in on social justice and racial “equity,†that would lock down the nonwhite vote. That was a chimera as a careful examination of actually-existing opinions and priorities among actually-existing nonwhite voters would have quickly revealed. Perhaps now that declining nonwhite support for the Democrats is “officialâ€, that much-needed examination can take place.
There is a thorny question to which I do not know the answer but I would bet there are some Democratic pollsters who do. What turnout among non-white voters do Democrats need to win national elections? Recent elections have been sufficiently close that they don’t need to lose all non-white votes to lose the election. Just enough of them.
I’ve seen citations. Can’t vouch for them. But it’s a surprisingly small number. Think 5%.
The question actually is: when in the booth do you act, or default to habit?
For many state and local elective offices it makes no difference. The candidates are running unopposed.
Too early to tell. Plenty of time for someone to say something wrong. I am thinking the loss of non-whites would have to be pretty large to offset the loss of women after Dobbs.
Steve