The Temperature’s Rising It Isn’t Surprising

As it becomes increasingly obvious that battlespace preparation is contending with the legitimate objective of increasing confidence in our electoral system in the House’s January 6 committee hearings, I thought I’d focus a little attention on the skyrocketing risk of domestic terrorism in the U. S. Consider the graph at the top of this page, illustrating the relationship between political demonstrations and domestic terrorism in the U. S. The graph was sample from an article at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published a month ago. Consider:

Violent far-right attacks and plots remained the most frequent type of domestic terrorism in 2021, but violent far-left perpetrators committed a growing percentage of attacks. As shown in Figure 5, of the 77 terrorist events in 2021, 38 events (49 percent) were perpetrated by those on the violent far-right, 31 events (40 percent) by the violent far-left, 3 events (4 percent) by Salafi-jihadists, 2 events (3 percent) by ethnonationalists, and 3 events (4 percent) by those with other motives.

Here is their Figure 5:

What is clear is that there has been a sharp increase in all forms of domestic terrorism regardless of motivation over the last several years. Furthermore their definitions of “violent far-right extremism” and “violent far-left extremism” are a bit idiosyncratic. Here is what they say they are:

Most violent far-right perpetrators were motivated by white supremacist or anti-government sentiments, and they committed most of the fatal attacks in 2021. Of the 30 fatalities in 2021, 28 resulted from far-right terrorist attacks. White supremacists killed 13 people, a violent misogynist killed, anti-government extremists killed 4, and an anti-vaccination perpetrator killed 3. On June 26 in Winthrop, Massachusetts, for example, Nathan Allen shot and killed two Black individuals after crashing a stolen box truck. Allen had frequently read extremist material and had written journals filled with white nationalist beliefs, including calls for white people—who he believed to be “apex predators”—to kill Black people.

Most violent far-left perpetrators were motivated by anarchism, anti-fascism, or anti-police stances. Although these actors committed a historically high number of terrorist attacks and plots in 2021, only one resulted in a fatality. On June 24 in Daytona Beach, Florida, Othal Wallace shot and killed local police officer Jason Raynor. Wallace had links to several Black nationalist paramilitary groups, including the Not F*****g Around Coalition and Black Nation, the latter of which he founded in early 2021.

Why do I say “idiosyncratic”? Because racially-motivated extremist attacks are always classified as “violent right-wing extremism” while attacks inspired by anarchism are classified as “violent left-wing extremism” regardless of the political views of the perpetrators.

I’m less concerned about whether the perpetrators are “far right”, “far left”, or something else than I am about why we are having the sharp increase in violence. How do you classify the mass murder in Buffalo? Yes, he was motivated by racial hatred but he also held left wing political views. The motivations of crazy people can elude classification.

The authors attribute the increase to polarization:

Political polarization in the United States has grown in recent years, including among the general public, members of Congress, and within political parties.37 Despite this political polarization, however, policymakers—including from the legislative branch—need to pursue bipartisan efforts to reject all forms of terrorism. By definition, terrorism involves the use or threat of violence and is illegal. Freedom of speech is protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, but violence is not. In fact, violence and the threat of violence can undermine the ability and willingness of individuals to express their ideas in accordance with their First Amendment rights.

I didn’t find any of their prescriptions particularly compelling. IMO we have been on a slippery slope towards political violence for some time and the “law of holes” applies. Public figures need to temper their speech including when they don’t think their remarks are public. There’s no such thing as a private statement any more.