This must be my day for posting graphs. This graph is what the Federal Reserve tells us we have been importing from China since 1985 right up to and including last month.
Two questions:
- What story does that graph tell us?
- What story have we been told is happening?
Heh.
1. China imports began in the mid-late 80’s. It looks more like a fundamental change in international economics than an identifiable policy decision.
2. Monotonic increase for decades. Just the last month or two an inflection point . Trade negotiations or Chinese manufacturing shutdown/virus?
Looks like tariffs aren’t changing the trade numbers. China is absorbing the tariff costs with the idea that they are temporary.
Thanks Joe.
China began negotiations to join the WTO in around 1985. They joined 2001. It looks like they really started ramping up in the mid 2000’s, which make sense since it would take a few years to build up the manufacturing capability and the infrastructure to support it.
Grayshambler: My prediction is if Trump is reelected, Xi is forced out within the year if not sooner. The Han are waiting on the election to see if he loses the Mandate of Heaven. When you break the escalator of power that allowed for smooth transitions of regimes, you’re gonna get a logjam of frustrated would-be tyrants backing up behind it. Once the spymasters and internet censors stop actively supporting Xi by ignoring dissent wholesale, watch out.