The State of Play

What do the midterm elections portend? Should we be prepared for a Democratic sweep? A Republican? Are big changes ahead or more of the same?

In his most recent Wall Street Journal op-ed Karl Rove analyzes the prospects for Democrats in the upcoming midterms. After noting that midterm elections tend to incline towards referenda on the sitting president and pointing out that Trump’s favorability isn’t particularly high, he points out something interesting, even paradoxical:

But Mr. Trump’s popularity isn’t the only consequential number. The RCP average has the Democratic Party at 35.8% favorable to 55.7% unfavorable. The Republican Party does better, 39.3% to 53.9%. How did the Democrats become less popular than Mr. Trump? It took many years, much hard work, wacky policy stances and plenty of missteps.

Even the RCP’s generic House ballot is a problem for the Democratic Party’s midterm prospects. Although Democrats lead Republicans, 46.9% to 42.1%, that may point to only modest Democratic gains in the House. Only a handful of districts are up for grabs this fall. Prognosticators suggest there are 17 districts that are toss-ups. Thirteen are held by Republicans, four by Democrats. On top of these are 13 seats held by Democrats and two held by Republicans that lean blue and one Democratic and three Republican seats that lean red. Finally, there are two GOP seats and one held by an independent (former Republican Kevin Kiley) that are considered solidly Democratic after recent resdistricting shenanigans.

Altogether, that isn’t a lot of targets for Democrats. If they swept all 39 at-risk seats, that would translate into a gain of 21. That’s about half the 41-seat boost they saw in 2018, when their generic-ballot advantage before the election was 7.3 points.

concluding that Democrats are acting as though trashing Trump is all they need to do. The tone of Mr. Rove’s op-ed is hortatory: he wants Republicans to get off their duffs and do something. His warning reflects the reality that even favorable structural conditions can be squandered.

The paradox to which Mr. Rove gestures isn’t particularly surprising. Indeed, it’s close to the modern norm, following the patterns of George W. Bush and the Republicans in 2006 and Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2014. Presidential approval ratings are personal rather than reflecting on their respective parties.

This also aligns with Ruy Teixeira’s recent lament about the Democratic Party’s declining standing with voters. The problem he identifies is not primarily candidate-specific but structural: the party brand itself has weakened. The polling Rove cites with Trump trailing generic Republicans, and Democrats trailing both fits that pattern. Democrats may benefit from dissatisfaction with Trump without having rebuilt broad confidence in their own party.

Larry Sabato projects the likely outcome of the 2026 midterms is that Democrats will gain control of the House by 21 seats while Republicans retain control of the Senate. That is also supported by prediction markets.

What does that mean for the next two years? If precedent is any gauge, it will mean continued gridlock and posturing by both political parties. Divided government without a strong mandate typically produces symbolic conflict rather than durable policy. If House Democrats remain true to form they will impeach Trump (again) and it will go nowhere (again). If Senate Republicans remain true to form they won’t accomplish a great deal.