In a piece at Project Syndicate Obama Administration economic advisor Jason Furman makes two points, first, that the present inflation is largely driven by increased demand:
CAMBRIDGE – Commentators have generally offered two arguments about advanced economies’ performance since COVID-19 struck, only one of which can be true. The first is that the economic rebound has been surprisingly rapid, outpacing what forecasters expected and setting this recovery apart from the aftermath of previous recessions.
The second argument is that inflation has reached its recent heights because of unexpected supply-side developments, including supply-chain issues like semiconductor shortages, an unexpectedly persistent shift from services to goods consumption, a lag in people’s return to the workforce, and the persistence of the virus.
The first argument is more likely to be true than the second. Strong real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth suggests that economic activity has not been significantly hampered by supply issues, and that the recent inflation is mostly driven by demand.
and, second, that it is likely to be persistent:
Looking ahead, there are some reasons to expect demand to cool, but these will need to be weighed in the balance. Fiscal support is indeed winding down everywhere. Interest rates are starting to rise in the US and the United Kingdom, and will increase later this year in Europe as well. And equity markets have recently fallen back sharply.
But households still have substantial excess savings, and the overall stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, suggesting that demand will continue to be strong.
To my eye it’s pretty obvious that the present inflation is at least partially driven by printing money. Consider, for example, the oil to gold price ratio:
When measured in dollars the prices of both oil and gold have increased substantially over the last 15 months. Over that period the price of oil has nearly doubled. The gold price has increased, too. The price of oil in gold has risen, too, but not at the rate its price in dollars has.
I’m not a gold bug but one of the remarkable facts is how stable prices are when measured in gold. My point here is that if you truly want to stabilize prices, we shouldn’t issue ourselves more credit (print money). If you think that relief for the poor is a necessity under present circumstances, either 1) divert money from other uses or 2) realize more revenue. Note my diction. “Raising taxes” meaning “increasing marginal rates” does not necessarily generate more revenue. Don’t print more money. That won’t do much to solve the problem.
This is pure sophistry.
Too fast a recovery? I am unaware of any major commodity that is being consumed at a materially greater pace than in 2019, pre-covid. Perhaps only the hospitality industry. Anything looks like its growing very fast off a trough. Where is the excess demand? Energy is the poster boy, and as covered here recently, is being consumed just a smidge more than 2019.
Second, Furman conveniently forgets to mention that demand was produced by helicopter money, which was financed by the Fed buying debt instruments. Read: printing money.
“Only one of which can be true!?” The notion that covid related supply disruptions cannot be present at the same time as MMT fueled demand is just absurd on its face.
The only thing he got right is that inflation will persist —> Because the Biden team refuses to acknowledge their wrongheadedness.
What a shame for the fixed income crowd and those with no upward flexibility with respect to wages
Nice to see you could pull yourself away from your testicle tanning to provide us that insight Drew.
Steve
†What a shame for the fixed income crowd and those with no upward flexibility with respect to wages.â€
….Doesn’t that cover the majority of people’s circumstances?
As for the article itself, I found it’s reasoning rather tortured in some cases, and inaccurate in others. The claim, for instance, about household savings being “substantial†is disingenuous, except perhaps for the one percenters. The trend currently is that more people are extending their credit.
@steve
Amazing. Just fucking amazing. I was wondering if your inanity would increase. It did. You are like an irate monkey flinging shit.
By the way, you forgot to add that he is a poopie-head.
@Drew
I realize that you can fight your own battles, but this is beyond belief.
Tasty –
No worries. I’ve found that attempting to reason with steve is about as worthwhile as attempting to reason with my dog. You must admit, though, his comment fits him.
Jan –
Yes, most. But there are those who have latitude. I often point out that there is really limited latitude for people in the investment world as well. Fixed income yields squat; and now the equity markets aren’t robust. But people like me have an option. I have a sizeable PE portfolio. Expected returns are in the 17%-23% range. That means what I can’t earn in fixed income I can make up elsewhere. This is really why I totally tune out when I hear some progressive blathering on about their care for the poor. A total disconnect between policy and their well being. But thos who administer the programs sure seem to make out……
8 Benghazi investigations, vaccines dont work but vitamins and HCQ/Ivermectin does, Trump really won the election and I am being inane? LOL
Steve
Once you nail a political party’s name to any policy and the lame-brained reasoning behind that policy, there is no turning back for those heavily invested in their party. The statement, regarding progressives’ concern towards the poor, especially hits home as it reeks of insincerity, mainly because their words fall way short of mirroring any positive gains for the poor.
The disbursement of food stamps, giving checks to not work, and an increase of enabling social programs comprise the core of social progressive’s “caring.â€. Such aid is seen by a progressive as a sign of compassion, completely ignoring how self-growth is stymied and actually atrophies under such gratuitous policies.
The adverse side of such big government’s giveaways crowns the progressive higher-ups as God Fathers of the poor, whose political leaders, bureaucrats, heads of labor unions become the recipients of great wealth. Stacey Abrams, for instance, is now a multi millionaire in a few short years. Nancy Pelosi and her family seem to have an insider advantage in making the right monetary moves that only enrich themselves. The Biden Family has used “the big guy†(Joe) as a key to access DC decision-making, enhancing their own pocketbooks for years. But, all of this is on the down-low, subverted or silenced by a media unwilling to call out the misdeeds of the political party most pledge allegiance to.
Steve, you seem to ramble around in a small foxhole of snide remarks, regarding stances you cling to without seemingly exploring new information or data that may override your original perspective.
With regards to COVID treatments, over a third of the world has applied early treatment HCQ/ivermectin approaches successfully. Over 17,000 doctors, world-wide, support a physicians right to administer treatments, other than vaccines still under the protection of litigation by the EUAs. Dr. Brian Tyson has treated thousands of patients with anti virals that you continuously scorn – treatments resulting in almost no hospitalizations or deaths. Dr Marble, founder of myfreedoctor.com, has prescribed the anti virals course of treatment as well, to over a 150,000 people, with a 99.99% survival rate.
Consequently, I just don’t understand how you, a practicing physician, can be so smitten by vaccines, that have had such questionable safety data included in their clinical trials, while sneering at and dismissing the ever-growing efficacy of another course of treatment with high rates of success.
@steve
And, the cow jumped over the moon. What’s your point.
I expect a coherent and logical argument.
We may be risking a currency/financial crisis to mix with the inflation.
The Japanese Yen has fallen 15% in a month due to the differential interest rates between Japan and the Fed. The Euro is falling at a similar rate.
The problem is Japan and Europe is still doing QE.
Unless there is a coordinated monetary policy; American manufacturing (outside of energy) is going to get hammered with a combination of competitive foreign devaluations, input price inflation, decreasing demand, and increasing cost of money.
You are reading my mind, CuriousOnlooker. I’ve been looking at the rise of the dollar relative to other currencies today. As I see it there are multiple competing explanations:
A. The dollar is appreciating.
B. The dollar is depreciating but other currencies are depreciating faster.
C. All of the other currencies are reacting to the Fed (expressed above).
D. In uncertain times there is a flight to safety.
All of the above have merit and may be operative to some degree but I lean towards B.
If A were the case, the prices of oil and gold would be falling. They aren’t. I find it hard to believe that the Fed is influential enough for C to be the case. Are things really uncertain enough in Japan for D to be the case?
Dude, the testicle tanning was being promoted by the most popular and leading intellectual on the right. How could I not make fun of it?
“Consequently, I just don’t understand how you, a practicing physician, can be so smitten by vaccines, that have had such questionable safety data included in their clinical trials, while sneering at and dismissing the ever-growing efficacy of another course of treatment with high rates of success.”
Because I read the data. I understand the physiology. I am not interested in grifting to make money off of covid.
” snide remarks, ”
Snide remarks? Aimed at Drew? OMG, I feel so bad. I now take it all back.
Steve
â€https://amgreatness.com/2022/04/21/cardiologist-says-30-percent-of-vaccinated-pilots-would-fail-health-screenings-due-to-vaccine-injuries/“
While Steve reads the data and vouches for an understanding of physiology, he also ignores, makes fun of, or simply discredits incoming data, evolving science, or peoples’ recitals of adverse effects, indicating alarming side effects derived from these yet to be approved but universally pushed/mandated vaccines.
American Greatness, unlike the majority of publications who parrot the compromised CDC narrative, is an independent journal, not hampered by any allegiance or ties to big media, pharma, or government in their news inquiries. People, however, such as Steve Kirsch or Peter McCullough, because of their participation in the above article, will nonetheless trigger rubber-stamped negativity even though someone like McCullough has credentials, medical experience, interactions with COVID patients, and peer-reviewed publications that far outweigh those of his detractors.
@steve
I do not understand the connection between @Drew’s comment and his testicle regime. Are you asserting that: a) he is a testicle tanner and b) his testicle tanning is the cause of inflation.
I do not understand the connection between Benghazi investigations, vaccines, and the 2020 election, and I have no idea of how they are connected @Drew’s comment or his alleged attempts to change the color of his testicles.
So, I am befuddled regarding your argument. Apparently, you are displeased with @Drew’s testicles influencing inflation. At this point, an incoherent and illogical argument would do.
You seem to have an unhealthy obsession with balls.
You know how Dave will have a post on Illinois or something and Drew will throw in a snide comment on Hunters laptop? The most popular right wing pundit is advocating for testicle tanning. I know Drew is trying hard to fit in down south there so there is a good chance he is out with the other guys getting them tanned. You need to keep up with current events.
So sorry, this is no more inane than all the stupid claims made about the things I cited. (I suspect you know this and are trolling. )
American Greatness is a political journal, not a medical journal. If 30% of pilots were failing their physicals we would know that already. You do know that after 40 they need a physical every 6 months right? (First class ie commercial airline pilot.)
Here is another clue. I do this for a living but you just read stuff and have no idea what it means. So when you claim some guy has treated 150,000 pts for covid I immediately run the numbers in my head. So lets say he works 40 hours a week treating people. (Everyone has some administrative time so 40 is actually pretty high.) Lets say he is devoted to the cause and works 50 weeks a year. We have had 2 years of covid so that equals 4000 hours. That means your guy is treating about 38 pts an hour. He is running an online pill mill. The chances that he actually knew those people really had covid? Chance that he did meaningful follow up? Chance he isn’t having others involved? Close to zero for all of those.
So with just a bit of follow up we find that your guy has about a dozen other docs working with him. They dont charge anything but they ask for donations, and 97% people donate and it averages $65. So redo the numbers and they are seeing 3-4 pts per hour which means they are making a bit over $200/hour. No call, no holidays, no weekends, easy work. Its a scam.
Steve
Steve, as I already stated, Dr Marble is the founder of myfreedoctor.com, which is a consortium of physicians dealing with patients mainly through telemedicine venues. That 150,000+ number of patients treated is a collective figure.
As for discrediting American Greatness for running this story, because it wasn’t a medical journal – that is frequently used by you to downplay or ridicule anything outside the wheelhouse of medical orthodoxy. Truth doesn’t necessarily check the card catalog to see if it’s in right place to be told. Oftentimes it’s the outsiders of any professional establishment who have the guts to challenge narratives that are far afield from reality or truth.
The number of pilots suffering from heart problems after taking the vaccine, which you also downplayed as nonsense, has been discussed in other mediums for over a year. The fear of losing one’s job, license, or even reputation has kept much of the underlying corruption behind the formulation, distribution, and side effects of this vaccine muted, along with the people forced to take these vaccines.
Similar to vioxx, which was highly touted as a wonderful drug, and kept on the market for 5 years, information of it’s toxicity along with the statistical lies Merck wrapped around it’s marketing, eventually were exposed. The drug was finally pulled in 2004 and lawsuits with huge payouts ensued. I think there is a good chance Pfizer will suffer the same fate, as there is a serious task force of medical professionals and lawyers combing through data, released so far, behind their clinical trials – papers Pfizer and the complicit FDA didn’t want released for 75 years. The manipulation of data, how the vaccine was processed, the shabby safety protocols employed, and the waivers given by the FDA to rush this experimental product onto the market and into ill-advised people’s arms is simply horrific!
I have an open mind on the subject but I strongly suspect that stress and obesity are more serious problems for airline pilots than COVID-19 vaccination. To date the info I have seen claiming heightened risks is completely anecdotal.
â€So with just a bit of follow up we find that your guy has about a dozen other docs working with him. They dont charge anything but they ask for donations, and 97% people donate and it averages $65. So redo the numbers and they are seeing 3-4 pts per hour which means they are making a bit over $200/hour. No call, no holidays, no weekends, easy work. Its a scam.â€
20 minutes to a half hour with my husband’s doctor is $250, higher than the pricing projected by you for the docs treating COVID patients. More importantly is the results achieved by this medical group – a 99.9% success rate, treating a virus, that for most age groups has a lethality rate of less than 1%. In comparison Pfizer’s fatality rate for it’s vaccine during clinical trials was 3.7%, enmeshed among missing or incomplete case data, with nearly 3/4s of the participants being male. It’s being speculated that such a lopsided gender ratio was due to males being more vulnerable to cardiac issues, putting approval for their vaccine in jeopardy.
IMO, if there is a scam to be rooted out, it would be Pfizer.
What is the going rate for an online limited service consult? I am doubting you know that. They dont accept insurance so it is all cash. How much of that gets reported? Last, we have no idea of their success rate. I can claim that none of the pts I have treated with covid died and how would anyone know? Some guy offering anecdotal evidence is not proof.
Steve
Steve, the treatment programs employed to deal with COVID should be assessed and judged for their success, the risks people are exposed to in taking them, the “transparency†of those who bring said treatments to market, and the accountability factor when there are excess harms brought about by experimental injections or well known antivirals.
When investigating vaccines, the adverse reactions far exceed those thought to be acceptable in other vaccines, before being pulled from the market. The success is almost laughable, as they do not protect people from getting the virus nor passing it on to others, because they are “leaky.â€
Furthermore, the efficacy is shallow and transient. And, with every virus mutation and booster given to quell it, more vaccinated people seem to become infected. Pfizer and the FDA have not wanted to release any clinical trial data until they were court-ordered to do so. Now, people going through these papers are understanding how poorly run these trials really were. Also, because of keeping the EUA in place, while at the same time forcing us to take them, people have no way to collect damages or get justice because of pharma’s protection from any liability.
In contrast, there is a long history of HCQ and ivermectin’s effectiveness with few side effects, laudable outcomes, at a fraction of the cost – features that are far more desirable than taking an unapproved vaccine. It’s only because of the strong punitive arm of the government and medical establishment, aided and abetted by media’s censorship and biased reporting, that these more reasonable avenues of treatment have been withheld
Finally, the money exchanging hands for pedaling these remedies should be considered. If one weighs the “billions†raked in by Pfizer versus the online “hundreds†made through voluntary donations for telemedicine calls, there is no comparison in the profiteering made by big pharma next to the free service provided by a group of dedicated doctors.