I strongly recommend reading this study at RAND on the factors that allow U. S. military interventions to succeed:
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives. While these objectives were often successfully achieved, about 63 percent of the time overall, levels of success have been declining over time as the United States has pursued increasingly ambitious objectives.
As should surprise no one the critical success factors are:
- Massive use of ground forces
- Narrow political objectives
- The quality of the institutions of the host nation
or, in other words, if you were looking for a project that was doomed to fail, our adventure in Afghanistan would be hard to beat.
Heh. Truer words were never spoken. The only outstanding question is how can it be so many people have been so wrong so long.
Some of the military understand this. Remember Shinseki telling them they needed 500,000 troops if we were going to invade Iraq. Got him (effectively) canned by Bush (meaning really Cheney) and Rumsfeld. Too bbad more senior officers dont read McMasrer’s Dereliction Of Duty.
Steve
The numbers that pop out are 145 wars, large and small, in 98 years: 1.5 wars/yr.
Of all those wars, I can only justify two, WW II and Korea, and it can be argued that both are consequences of WW I, which I cannot justify.
We are currently threatening, China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, and Venezuela, and it looks like we will go to war with Iran. A war in Ukraine is possible, but unlikely (I hope.) as it would go nuclear.
Over that same time, Russia has fought in four wars (Russo-Japan, WWI, WW II, Afghanistan) losing three of them, and conducted four interventions (Korea, Viet Nam, Ukraine, Syria), and a skirmish (Maoist China).
China had two very long civil wars, fought the Japanese in WW II, us in Korea, and intervened in Viet Nam.
Generally agree, but as far as the number of troops goes, it’s highly situationally dependent. There are many cases where “massive” numbers are unrealistic, unwarranted, or counter-productive.
As always, the scope and application of force depend on the political and military objectives
I forgot the interventions in Berlin, Cuba, Czechoslovakia, Georgia and Hungary.
I should have remembered Hungary. I worked with a Hungarian refugee for 20 years or so.
But I can’t come with anywhere near 145.
So why are Russia and China threats and the US isn’t.