I want to commend to your attention Kyle Kondik’s post at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, analyzing the House races one by one. Here’s the short version. Which party will hold the House in 2019 is presently too close to call:
Today’s seven ratings changes are all toward the Democrats, and the overall ratings now show 208 seats at least leaning to the Republicans, 199 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 28 Toss-ups. To win the House under the current ratings, Democrats would have to win two-thirds of the Toss-ups. In the event of a good Democratic environment in the fall, that would not be unreasonable to expect.
If the Democrats run good campaigns and don’t go out of their way to make any mistakes, they have a good chance of taking the House.
insert Will Rogers quote about party membership here.
Yeah, I was thinking of that as I wrote this post.. Clever of you to notice.