Today the editors of the Wall Street Journal have produced a scorecard of various countries’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the “honor roll”:
- Switzerland
- Cyprus
- Japan
I was surprised to hear that Switzerland was supporting the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia. That is quite a departure for Switzerland. It’s hard to emphasize how big a development this is for the country. Cyprus, too, is supporting the sanctions. Japan is blocking the Russian central bank from trading in the yen. Since the dollar, the euro, and the yen are the world’s “safe haven” currencies, that will make things difficult for the Russians.
On the fence:
- Turkey
- Israel
Will Turkey close the Turkish straits to Russian ships? It hasn’t done that since World War II. Israel for its part is trying to position itself as a neutral interlocutor, maintaining relations both with Russia and Ukraine.
In the doghouse:
- China
- UAE
- India
China, India, and the UAE all abstained from the Security Council resolution condemning Russia for the invasion. Concerning China the editors write:
The country shares Russia’s desire to dismantle the U.S.-led international order, and after the invasion Beijing’s foreign ministry called Washington “the culprit of current tensions surrounding Ukraine.†But China also trades with and invests in Ukraine and doesn’t want to alienate its trading partners in Western Europe.
The Chinese Communist Party is the ultimate transactional actor in foreign affairs. Other global leaders, especially in the developing world, should take note that their sovereignty is of interest to China’s leaders only so long as it advances narrow Chinese interests.
Here I thought Israel was our BFF. What a surprise to find out they put their own self interests first. (sarcasm alert) Otherwise agree Switzerland is the big surprise. Little bit surprised about Japan.
Cant remember if Russia has any pipelines to India. Wonder if it is even feasible.
Steve
Short version: a direct pipeline is not feasible (no shared border). The most secure way would probably be to go through China first.
It sounds like India’s military equipment is all Russian/Soviet made, so this vote may have been about parts supplies.
I think Turkey has closed the Straits, but the articles I’ve read emphasize that Turkey is urging countries to respect the international pact that provides for this (and allows Russian ships based in the Black Sea to return home). Makes me wonder if they are actually willing to enforce it. (Same question about the no-fly-zones for Russian aircraft announced in many European countries.)
From the viewpoint of national interests all the positions make sense.
Turkey — Closing the straits to Russian ships would be viewed as a hostile act towards Russia. Given Syria has enmity towards Turkish adventurism in its civil war and hosts Russian forces, Iran is a friend of Russia and Iran/Turkey relations are never easy — not unnecessarily angering Russia is a security issue.
Israel — Has a unspoken deal with Russia to let Israel have a free hand with regards to Iranian overland arms shipments through Syria to Hezbollah, again a key national security issue.
China — Obviously the editors concur that they are pursuing their national interests.
UAE / Saudi Arabia — Part of OPEC+, which includes Russia. Good relations with Russia are key to managing oil prices — the lifeblood to their economy.
India — Russia is a traditional ally (from India-China border war). Their security relationship includes Russia being a key hedge against China, arms supplier. Having a good relationship with Russia helps India from not being overly dependent on the Western Alliance.
Japan — Has a territorial dispute with Russia (from WWII). Very concerned on any aggression to Taiwan which is a key security issue.
Switzerland — Surrounded by the EU. Compared to its past where it was surrounded by opposing powers (France, Germany, Italy). Its economy is tied to EU and the US.
Maybe the question was what were the U.S. security interest in Ukraine (and Russia). Besides principles which are important, but has/is/will always be overridden by physical security interests. And what are US interests now that Ukraine and Russia are at war, and what should they be in the future.
My opinion is the US defined its interest as “principles” which had the side effect of turning Ukraine into a real security issue for Russia.