Here are Karl Rove’s predictions for 2026 from his piece in the Wall Street Journal:
What does my 2026 crystal ball say? The House goes Democratic; the Senate remains Republican. The GOP breaks even on governorships. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro emerges as the 2028 Democratic hopeful who most helped himself. The MAGA civil war grows.
The Supreme Court affirms birthright citizenship, allows political parties to raise unlimited contribution, and rules against Mr. Trump on tariffs. He imposes new ones based on different authorities, some limited in duration or requiring congressional approval. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is renewed with modest changes.
The House approves a majority of appropriations bills under regular order. Congress keeps the government running after Jan. 30 with a continuing resolution and no significant shutdown. Congress overrides a Trump veto.
Americans don’t get a $2,000 tariff rebate. Republicans can’t pass major healthcare reform. Inflation stays above 2% and GDP grows less than in 2025. The S&P 500 rises less than half of 2025’s increase.
The Trump Gold Card—permanent residency for $1 million—generates huge demand. The Kennedy Center isn’t the last building or program on which Mr. Trump tacks his name. He ends December with lower approval than today.
There’s no Ukrainian peace deal. Realizing Vladimir Putin is playing him, Mr. Trump steps up support for Kyiv. Russia increases hybrid warfare against the West. Greenland stays Danish but with a bigger U.S. military presence. Center-right parties win in at least two more European countries.
Nicolás Maduro’s fellow gangsters remain in office, but Venezuela moves toward elections. Growing unrest in Iran forces the mullahs to make economic reforms, crimping their terror activities.
More states and countries ban cellphones in schools. Generation Z church attendance rises. Led by GLP-1 drugs, weight loss will accelerate.
Norway wins the most Winter Olympics medals. England takes the World Cup, the Broncos the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford is NFL MVP. No Oscar picks: The Academy has lost its mind.
Whether you agree with his political views or not, that he has considerable insider access cannot be denied. I materially concur with his predictions with a few exceptions.
I don’t think it matters whether Josh Shapiro helps his notional presidential campaign or not. He won’t be the Democrats’ 2028 candidate for president. Picking him would fracture their coalition by alienating key elements of the activist base and minority constituencies.
The SCOTUS predictions are consistent with the court’s originalist and textualist bent although the confidence with which Rove asserts them exceeds what the Court’s recent pattern of selective restraint would justify.
The economic predictions are basically betting on a continuation of trend which is safe, unoriginal, and often wrong at turning points.
I have no idea about sports outcomes. The sports predictions are filler, included more for personality than analysis.
And he’s right that the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts & Sciences has lost its mind which is now a predictable feature of most legacy cultural institutions.
Let me add a prediction. It was reported that Elizabeth Warren approves of Trump’s policies limiting buybacks for defense companies and limiting CEO salaries. She also, reportedly, approved of proposed actions to limit house building by the large corporations. My prediction is that any policies on which both Trump and Warren agree if put in place wont work.
Steve