The Risk

I see that William A. Galston sees the back-and-forth over the bipartisan infrastructure bill pretty much the same way I do if his Wall Street Journal column is any gauge:

One reason Americans hold Washington in such low repute: They have watched partisans hold bills with broad support hostage. Everyone knows that a proposal to create a legal status for Dreamers brought to America as minors would pass overwhelmingly in an up-or-down vote in the House and Senate. But for a decade neither party has let such a bill reach the floor.

Now the same fate threatens a bipartisan infrastructure bill. Both parties struck a deal last week that would invest in one part of the Biden administration’s ambitious agenda—roads, bridges, water systems, public transportation, ports and airports, broadband and the electric grid—while leaving what some call “human infrastructure” for separate legislation. Because this second bill is less likely to command broad support across party lines, it can pass only through the “budget reconciliation” process, which requires only a simple majority in the Senate, not the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

To support the bipartisan bill, some Republicans want a guarantee that the second bill will fail, while many Democrats, including their leaders, are demanding its passage as the condition for bringing the bipartisan bill to the floor. In an astonishing unforced error, Mr. Biden announced his support for tying the bills together hours after appearing with congressional negotiators at the White House to announce and endorse the bipartisan agreement.

Understandably, some Republicans accused the president of negotiating in bad faith. It took three days—and an explicit reversal in a written presidential statement—to clear the air. By Sunday, Republican negotiators such as Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana reported that the process was back on track. “I do trust the president,” Utah Sen. Mitt Romney said. Other Republicans fear that this episode will leave a legacy of mistrust.

Mr. Galston doesn’t mention it but I hope that he, the president, and the Democrats more generally appreciate the risk that is being taken. If the House Democrats attempt to enact their entire $6 trillion program in reconciliation, Mitch McConnell has already warned what the outcome would be and I believe he should be considered as good as his word. Nothing would be allowed to move forward in the Senate for the rest of Joe Biden’s term of office. It would not just be bad faith on President Biden’s part it would be what’s called “poisoning the well”. It would also be handing Republicans running to replace Democrats in the 117th Congress a powerful weapon on which to campaign. That’s a pretty big risk with an evenly divided Senate, a slim majority in the House, and Republicans expected to gain a half dozen seats simply as a consequence of redistricting.