I found this article at the Center for Immigration Studies on estimating the size of the illegal immigrant population interesting. Among the many charts and graphs I found this one particularly interesting:
The last time our immigrant population was as high as it is now was a century ago and we slammed the door and largely left it shut for 40 years. Maybe things have changed since but I’ve been arguing that to avoid such a reaction or societal upheaval we should reduce illegal immigration.
One thing that’s changed is the age profile of the native born population. If we want more young people, we’re going to have to import them.
There’s an enormous difference between a 25 year old with a doctorate in computer science who speaks English and a 25 year old without even a high school equivalent education who doesn’t speak English. The former is a net asset; the latter a net liability. The honest truth is that we don’t need more liabilities; we have plenty already. That’s why I advocate an immigration system that encourage net assets and discourages net liabilities.
The important point is that these people bring their culture with them. The old American culture will be replaced. This is not the first time. First the Germans then the Irish heavily modified, perhaps overwhelmed the origin WASP culture. It has nowadays disappeared. After a period of strife and consolidation, there will be a new American culture. People speculate, but it likely will be some amalgam of Latin American, African, MENA, and South and East Asian cultures. It won’t be my or your Anerica.
Can representative democracy and the rule of law survive? Do we have it now?
Thankfully, I am old old and will not experience the changes. Today’s America is already too much for me.
I’ve posted on that very subject. An example of that was, to use Pat Moynihan’s description of New York’s Tammany Hall, “an Irish village writ large”.
My concern is that, just as American military power and influence in the world is downstream from the American economy, American prosperity is downstream from the old American culture. The likelihood is that we will end up with something not dissimilar to Mexico with a small, almost entirely European upper class, a mixed race middle class, and a black lower class.
So many of our successful entrepreneurs are 1st or 2nd generation immigrants. I think the upper class will be a mix, with a lot of Asian influence. The lower class will continue to be a mix of black and hispanic. Maybe some middle east.
Steve
Yep. That’s among the reasons we want immigration.
However, the percentage of illegal immigrants who start successful businesses is quite small and those are almost entirely mom-and-pop operations. I’m open to persuasion but I don’t think that reducing illegal immigration will have a material impact on entrepeneurship.
Heh. I avoided the temptation to guffaw at the immigrant entrepreneurs comment.
Mostly liquor stores, taco trucks, nail salons and the like. Mostly employ family. Limitation on illegal immigration will have about as much effect on the illegal drug trade As on real entrepreneurship.
Dave Schuler: There’s an enormous difference between a 25 year old with a doctorate in computer science who speaks English and a 25 year old without even a high school equivalent education who doesn’t speak English.
This is the typical progression: The first generation speaks only their native tongue and struggles. The second generation is bilingual and attains. The third generation only speaks English, becomes educated, and strikes out on new paths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWShKaSOESU&t=42s
bob sykes: First the Germans then the Irish heavily modified, perhaps overwhelmed the origin WASP culture.
Language is a good proxy for culture. English prevails. American culture overwhelms other cultures. Even with immigration, American culture is strongly influenced by its origins. But it’s not English culture: It’s something new.
bob sykes: It won’t be my or your Anerica.
The culture will remain distinctly American, while assimilating new cultures—as it always has; but the color of the people will change. If that is not your America, sorry for you.
The scholarship on this subject supports that progression but has also found that for some groups that progression is delayed by roughly a generation. The preponderance of illegal immigration over the last 40 years has been on the part of people from those groups.
I think the evidence is pretty good for what’s called the “weak Sapir-Whorf hypothesis”. In short language affects culture. The Census Bureau’s findings on the use of language in the home is pretty interesting.
Dave Schuler: The scholarship on this subject supports that progression but has also found that for some groups that progression is delayed by roughly a generation.
The rate of acquisition of English is higher today than in previous generations.
https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/immigrants-learn-english-immigrants-language#
1. Cato is a weak source on this subject.
2. The study linked does not cite the most commonly cited study on this subject.
I will go back and find the reference to the appropriate study. Its findings were much as I summarized and it focused on Spanish-speaking immigrants. In general those citing it only mention one of its findings–that Spanish-speaking immigrants DO adopt English. It is quite rare that those citing it read the whole study. Its other finding was that immigrants from Mexico and Central America, particularly illegal immigrants, tend to delay adoption of English compared with other immigrant groups.
That actually stands to reason. The large population from a single country (Mexico), patterns of residence, patterns of occupation tend to encourage continued usage of Spanish.
Dave Schuler: I will go back and find the reference to the appropriate study.
While Hispanics adopt English more slowly than some other immigrants, Hispanics adopt English more quickly today than in previous generations; and immigrants as a whole adopt English more quickly today than in previous generations, despite having a much higher cohort of Hispanics. And that’s in the first generation. Nearly all child immigrants learn English.
But we’ll look at your citation.