The Question Is Not Why Do They Do As They Do

German-British writer Katja Hoyer expresses dismay at European leaders in her Washington Post op-ed:

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, none of the European Union heavyweights had seen fit to visit Ukraine. Macron, who boasted that he has spent “at least a hundred hours” on the phone with Vladimir Putin, declared that he would travel to Kyiv only if he felt it was “useful.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke dismissively of not wanting to “join the queue of people who do a quick in-and-out for a photo opportunity.”

But the Thursday visit didn’t turn out to be particularly “useful” to Ukraine, which has been pleading desperately for more weapons; nor was it much more than a photo op. Apart from six additional howitzers from France, all the European leaders offered was support for Ukraine’s bid to become a member of the E.U. at some point in the future.

I’m not sure why. They are behaving very much as you would expect if you make some simple assumptions:

• They act through narrow national interest
• They have little or no interest in Ukraine
• They don’t think that Russia is a threat to them
• They’re confident that the U. S. will defend them
• They want to buy Russian gas and oil

As long as they pay lip service to support for Ukraine, make promises they may never need to fulfill, provide some minimal support, and avoid aggravating Russia too greatly, they accomplish their goals without bearing much cost. Conversely, the countries who are providing the most support for Ukraine, e.g. Poland, Latvia, Estonia, do feel threatened by Russia. They, too, are behaving as should be expected.

The question is not why they do as they do but why we do as we do. My hypothesis is that we don’t act through narrow national interest. I think we’ve been sold a bill of goods by our notional allies but I seem to be nearly alone in that view.

There are countries that are notional allies who have done even worse. Were I president or Secretary of State I would be musing out loud about whether Turkey were really a member of NATO. They don’t meet the “duck test” for it but they do meet such a test for “ally of Russia”.