I’ve read pieces at several places from various writers noting that electric vehicles (EVs) are stacking up in China as the old models are made obsolete by the new ones. This is a situation familiar to anyone in the technology business. Personal computers become obsolete with frustrating rapidity. Stocking up on them is an error for a reseller—it inevitably means you will be stuck with unsaleable personal computers in your warehouse.
It’s a factor that should be taken into account when reckoning the effect of EVs on carbon emissions. Don’t expect them to have the life expectancy of internal combustion engine vehicles.
EV batteries are generally warranted for 8 years or 100,000 miles, although they are expected to last maybe twice as long. However, replacement batteries go for $10,000, or more, and used EV’s are not going to have much or any resale value.
PS. EV batteries generally weigh about 1,000 lbs, and long range cars and pickups have batteries approaching 2,000 lbs. While highways and city streets are designed for heavy trucks, parking garages are designed for ICE cars, which are much lighter than EV’s.
My last computer lasted about 10 years. It was still functional after 5 years but I doubt I could have sold it for enough to make up for the hassle of selling it. It’s not that it didnt have a long life expectancy it’s just that the new computers had improved so much. Instead of buying my 5 year old computer you could buy a model that was 2 years old and already “out of date” for next to nothing. This reminds me very much of the debate about buying the next laptop or the next phone now or can you wait until the new improved model comes out. You would need to wait forever to avoid buying something that was rapidly considered to have little value on the resell market.
So I would bet that the large majority of those were functional. They still had a lot fo life left in them. However, you could buy newer cars that were so much better it didnt pay for the companies to try to sell them.
As an aside, a large battery recycling plant is being built (might be finished?) in the US. Wonder if China has one?
Steve
For me personal computers are a bit like that old Johnny Cash song, “One Piece at a Time”: I begin with a personal computer that has the CPU, memory, graphics card, etc. right in the “sweet spot” and upgrade it one component at a time as the opportunity presents.
The point is not whether those EVs have life in them still but the emissions produced in their manufacture. It makes a difference whether they’re replaced every 10 years, 5 years, or 2 years. If the break even point is 10 years, it won’t be reached if you replace the vehicle in 5 years and it cannot be sold and used.
“This is a situation familiar to anyone in the technology business. “
And anyone in the PE business. You don’t put debt on tech or fad businesses that can move right out from under you. Those businesses are for venture capital: all equity.
The last credible analysis I saw concluded the break even for total environmental impact, EV vs ICE, was well over 100,000 miles. Good luck with that, EVs.
I’m not worried about Drew’s comment. Some new technology will come along. I don’t know what or what century, but I just know it will. So spend your hard earned money.
Steve
AFAICT reading this and talking with daughter in China this is widely seen as a one time occurrence due to the poor management of the ride sharing companies. Probably totals a few thousand in a country with a billion people. Note that this has not happened in the US or anywhere else of which i am aware.
Steve
Energy coming from the sun or wind? Never going to happen!
Drew