I see that Walter Russell Mead has reached the same conclusion about NATO that I did long ago. From his latest Wall Street Journal column:
Is NATO dying? The idea was once unthinkable, but after the German cabinet decided to keep defense spending as low as 1.25% of gross domestic product for the next five years it has become unavoidable. This decision is not driven by any fiscal urgency. Germany is projected to have a balanced budget after last year’s surplus of €11.2 billion, its fifth annual surplus in a row.
What Berlin means by this decision is clear: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S. are not as important to Germany as they used to be. While irritation with and contempt for President Trump influence German foreign policy, something more profound is at work. Democrats including President Obama, as well as Republicans like John McCain, have long called on Germany to demonstrate its commitment to NATO by spending 2% of GDP on defense. By refusing even to come close to meeting NATO’s spending targets, Berlin is thumbing its nose not only at Donald Trump but at the U.S.
It’s also blowing off its neighbors. Britain and France are seething over German restrictions on arms exports that limit their ability to sell weapons developed in association with German defense companies to third countries of which Berlin disapproves, like Saudi Arabia. Germany’s eastern neighbors, including Poland and the Baltic states, want a stronger, better-funded NATO. Germany’s refusal to honor its commitments, combined with its cooperation with Russia over the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, leaves these countries deeply fearful.
Germany isn’t alone in distancing itself from NATO. Turkey’s plans to buy S-400 missiles from Russia, and Italy’s recent decision to sign on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, are also measures of the diminished value placed on the trans-Atlantic alliance.
If it were merely that Germany is not living up to its commitments, it would be bad enough. Germany has actually been undermining our collective security. It sold the equipment to Pakistan that enabled it to produce nuclear weapons. Then it turned around and did the same thing with Iran. Until 2009 North Korea’s only Internet connectivity ran through Germany. Germany has repeatedly violated the UN trade sanctions against North Korea.
Germany was the first major country to recognize Croatian independence and did so before Croatia was actually independent of Yugoslavia.
The Germans are not our friends and they have repeatedly demonstrated by their actions that they are not our allies.
Seems like a large part of this is that the export segment of the economy is contracting, and forecasts are not great. Brexit might push it into recession. Seems like the Europeans always find other priorities.
The simplified model of Germany’s trade history over the last 15 years has been one of increasing imports from China and decreasing exports to China. Initially, China’s new factories were being built by Germany but now the Chinese are building their own factories. They don’t need Germany any more. Funny what happens when you trade with a country as capable of managing its trade strategically as China.
I don’t think there’s room in the world economy for three major economies, all with export-driven growth. I guess we’ll see.
Clearly nagging the Europeans hasn’t worked. We should consider modifying our nuclear sharing policy and repatriate all US nuclear weapons from Europe and Turkey. Or maybe transfer them from Turkey and Germany to other NATO countries.