In yesterday’s primary elections no candidate for whom I voted got even a plurality of the vote other than the only incumbent for whom I voted, Rep. Mike Quigley. In the fall Democrat Juliana Stratton will face Republican Don Tracy in the race for retiring Sen. Richard Durbin’s seat.
The newspapers are referring to her as “progressive Juliana Stratton” but when I look at her I don’t see progressive, moderate, or any ideology other than “footsoldier”. And, honestly, that characterizes Don Tracy, a former chairman of the state Republican Party, too. IMO either of them will vote reliably for whatever their respective party’s leaders tell them to. The real distinction in this race is not ideological but institutional: both candidates are reliable agents of their parties rather than independent actors.
That reliability is not working for Illinois. Both parties take it for granted. Illinois’s population has decline about 2% over the last 10 years and its decline is only that small because of a sharp increase in the foreign-born population, at least some of whom are in the country illegally. The rapid growth of populations outside normal tax and regulatory systems complicates the state’s fiscal picture, particularly on the cost side.. When Illinoisans can’t depend on the state and they can’t depend on the federal government, some of them leave the state.
Neither of those candidates captured a majority of the votes in any county—they were plurality winners. And Juliana Stratton primarily prevailed because of the city of Chicago’s primary voters, 40% of whom voted for her. Although the media are reporting heavy turnout the present statistics are telling a somewhat different story. There are 8.4 million registered voters in Illinois. About a million votes were cast for Senate candidates in yesterday’s primary. 40% of 12% is not overwhelming support.
In Illinois Democrats, mostly in Cook County, outnumber Republicans 2:1 so it is assumed that Ms. Stratton will win in the general election. While primary turnout is always limited, to win in November, she will need to build a coalition far broader than the narrow, Chicago-centered base that secured her the nomination.
I’m not sure I would describe Tracy as a foot solider. Tracy first ran for political office (state senate) as a Democrat and lost, and his tenure as chair of the Republican party was marked by conflict with the populist right as he tried to get the state party to move towards electability. His family owns Dot Foods, and presumably he has money to campaign with, though he kept it low key for the primaries. He’s probably a moderate, fiscal conservative, like the types of Republicans that have won statewide in the past.
That past is looking pretty distant now, but Pritzker has never garnered 55% of the vote in any election, so my assumption is that a Democrat will win the seat, but it won’t be a blow out, but assumes the Democrat doesn’t stumble.