I found these statistics in Freddie deBoer’s most recent post interesting:
The first, obvious answer is that people don’t want simply to create, but to make a living creating, to create as a profession. And this is vastly more difficult to achieve. Making a living on Etsy is notoriously difficult, with about 90% of Etsy stores earning less than $400 a month. Estimates for payouts for a thousand views on YouTube are around $18 dollars; less than 12% of videos even reach that threshold. 90% of Twitch’s users stream to six average viewers or less, and a quarter of even the top 10,000 highest-paid accounts make less than minimum wage. The average OnlyFans account earns just $150 a month. It’s estimated that 99% of podcasts make no profit. 98.6% of Spotify artists make an average of just $36 a quarter. On Patreon, a platform that creators of all kinds use to monetize their work, less than 2% of users make even the federal monthly minimum wage. I have no numbers for Substack, but we can be sure that it’s a similar trend. That’s because the creator economy follows a power law distribution; the vast majority of people in it get tiny amounts of money and attention, while a small sliver of users are handsomely rewarded with both. Any individual creator might become one of the winners. But at scale, almost everyone is going to fail. The growing number of people who are hungry to get rich in the creator economy—who believe themselves to be deserving of success by dint of their education and hard work—coupled with the awareness that almost all of them will fail is an example of elite overproduction. We have an artistic class which is predominantly made up of people who enjoy none of the financial rewards afforded to artists.
Here’s another statistic. You’ve got to be in the top 3% of Youtube creators to receive more than $16,800 in ad revenue. And it’s practically impossible to reach that level. Again, power law—early movers garner most of the views.
Of course except for a relatively tiny sliver of time there were few “financial rewards afforded to artists”. If you had a wealthy patron, you got paid. Otherwise there was nothing. Shakespeare wasn’t poor but he wasn’t wealthy, either, and he was basically at the top of his profession of playwright, theatrical producer, and actor. Rembrandt had money from commissions and was paid as a teacher. He earned on the high end for skilled craftsman at the time but he was far from wealthy. But for his brother Theo, Van Gogh would have starved.
Most of the post is about “elite overproduction”. IMO most of the discussion has it completely backwards. I think that holding out college educations as the key to prosperous, fulfilling careers is cruel. It’s cargo cult thinking. Fifty years ago college educations were pre-professional or pre-managerial training. A college degree was largely a signifier that you were prepared to assume a role in the professional class and a significant part of the college experience was making contacts among other young people who were part of the professional class.
However, the ranks of professionals are still limited to a relatively tiny 14% of the population while we’re trying to give half of the population college degrees. No wonder there are so many dissatisfied young people. Saddled with debts they’ll never pay off, unable to make a living in their chosen fields, no real prospect for ever doing so.
We’ve shut down jobs for the working class, too, at least the good-paying ones in the factories. And now even burger-flipping is automated.
Opportunities at the top are necessarily limited (how many psychoanalysts do we need?), and opportunities at the bottom are gone or disappearing.
Of course, there’s a potential big need for cannon fodder in Ukraine, the Persian Gulf, and the South China Sea.
Trump hit all the populist high notes, like shutting down the Ukrainian war, and getting rid of the warmongers. But he’s well past his use-by date.
Social pressures are rising. Doesn’t bode well.
Social pressures are rising,
But revolution? More likely settling into drugs, alcohol, and despair.
100,000/year overdose, how many just dose?
Historically, the poor don’t start revolutions although they may end up being the cannon fodder for them. It’s the elites and bourgeoisie that revolt, typically the “out” elites vs. the “in” elites.
How well that translates to the U. S. I have no idea.
Historically, the poor don’t start revolutions although they may end up being the cannon fodder for them. It’s the elites and bourgeoisie that revolt, typically the “out†elites vs. the “in†elites.
So true. The poor usually carry the burdens of wars and revolutions. The aristocratic hierarchies, though, are the ones inciting or calling the shots on such uprisings.
“However, the ranks of professionals are still limited to a relatively tiny 14% of the population while we’re trying to give half of the population college degrees. No wonder there are so many dissatisfied young people. Saddled with debts they’ll never pay off, unable to make a living in their chosen fields, no real prospect for ever doing so.”
If the “half” notion is even remotely correct you have to admit that the mismatch is grotesque. And I use the word grotesque because of the “saddling of debts” etc. This started in earnest when the government intervened.
Trade is a tricky subject. (Well worn here) I have spent the majority of my career attempting to make US based manufacturers competitive, and avoid the footprint going overseas. And yet, I drive a German car. Why? Its simply a superior product. And coming from the steel industry I know what happens when you don’t impose competition on an industry. (Heh, you get the government).
Bob is partially correct that lower end jobs have been offshored. However, try to get good tradesmen. Very difficult. As a society we have really done people a disservice in advocating college for all and neglecting the trades, as noble a pursuit as any. Biden’s debt forgiveness posture for the most well off is not a good start in changing course.
The smartest guy I know’s father was a factory worker all of his life. My friend is a PhD in mathematics and presently works as a computer programmer because he couldn’t get a tenure-tracked job teaching in a university.
My point is that years ago there were lots of smart people who didn’t have college degrees who could make a living and raise a family on blue collar jobs. If those days aren’t gone, they’re disappearing. IMO they’ve been drowned in a flood of entry level workers and jobs shipped offshore.
Not quite on subject but related to your point about German cars is that 50 years ago I learned that Americas will buy dreck as along as its cheap. America retailers frequently don’t even stock quality products—they sell to the mass market.
“… I learned that Americas will buy dreck as along as its cheap.”
A point I’ve made repeatedly. I would say that American automakers have made huge strides in design and quality since the 70’s and 80’s. Competition, of course. But I defy anyone to point to an American car that rivals my current: Porsche Panamera. Some point to Cadillac CT series. Not even close.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with “blue collar” work. That’s a personal choice. Tradeoffs. But yes, the wage structures have been totally disrupted over time. We did that to ourselves. Public perceptions. Government policy. Environmentalism. And large corporate decisions.
There was a recent discussion of “patriotism.” A very narrow view was expressed about the role of military service. How about those 4 issues I just cited and their effects on the health of the nation?
As I’ve pointed out before I have a sort of split personality. My father’s family was bourgeois as far as the eye can see—for at least the last 500 years. My mom’s family was basically outcaste. Either working class or classless. There was never any question that I would go to college and be a professional of one sort or another. It wasn’t exactly a choice. More of an assumption. But, unlike many middle class kids today, I saw being working class, classless, and poverty at close hand. I spent my first ten years in a blue collar neighborhood. My friends came from either blue collar or poor families. The guys who attended my high school came from a variety of backgrounds—all over the St. Louis area.