I’ll probably be conducting this completely unscientific poll periodically for the next several years. Which of these is most likely to happen?
- Trump remains in office through the end of his term.
- Trump resigns before the midterms
- Trump resigns after the midterms
- Trump is impeached by the House but not removed from office by the Senate
- Trump is impeached by the House and removed by the Senate
- Trump is assassinated
I’ve listed these more or less in what I think is decreasing likelihood. There’s what seems to me to be a reasonable argument for B on the grounds that governing is a lot less fun than running and that things are only likely to become less pleasant.
Wishful thinking by Democrats and establishment Republicans notwithstanding, President Trump appears to have a floor of support of just under 40% (cf. the RealClearPolitics average of polls) and that’s probably a solid majority of Republicans. If that floor gives way, anything could happen. If it doesn’t it’s too high for impeachment. The House Republicans will not fall on their swords to get rid of Trump.
Right now I’d say that the most likely thing to happen is Choice A, Trump remains President through at least the morning of January 20, 2021. Whether he is re-elected is another story that it’s far too early to comment on, in my opinion.
As for the other choices. I don’t see him resigning either before or after the midterms absent unforeseen health issues or something similar. Impeachment is unlikely while Republicans control the House, which right now I think they will continue to do after the midterms, and even if he were impeached the odds of there being 67 votes to remove him in the Senate seem fairly low right now. Obviously, all this could change depending on what we learn in the course of ongoing investigations.
As for the final choice, I’m not going to comment. I’m no Trump fan but the country doesn’t need the trauma of a Presidential assassination and I’m not going to speculate about it. Although I guess it’s worth noting that there is a Choice G, which would be that he dies of natural causes while in office. Also, there’s the possibility of removal on either a temporary or permanent basis via the 25th Amendment, which I consider to be even less likely than any of the other choices.
My guess is A, but with President Trump, I do not see how the standard/previous political calculations can predict anything about him.
As a burn-it-to-the-ground sort of guy, my hopes would be D or E. I seriously doubt that the people who have been consistently wrong about anything related to Donald Trump will be correct in their post-Trump vision.
Rather than a return to normalcy, I suspect that the world will look much worse. Many of the Trump supporters are not Republicans, and trashing the Republican Party or Republicans is ineffective.
A
My priority order is:
A, D, C, B, E, F
I agree with Doug that much depends on what the Russian investigation discovers.
A. Even if they find that Trump advisers were selling stuff to the Russians, they won’t impeach him. I really can’t think of much that lead to that. Also, he won’t resign even if it is not fun. They (he and his family) are making too much money off of it.
Steve
A, because all this Russian stuff is, heh, trumped up.
I also “predict” Illinois’ debt will be downgraded again. nyuk, nyuk, nyuk
B — Melania is going to hate Washington, if she ever moves there, and her role as first lady. She’s a quiet, filthy rich, high-maintenance woman and will want to be near her world-class maintenance infrastructure. Every year that gets more important. What woman wants every plastic surgery publicized?
Barron is going to hate Washington. He’ll be removed from from his friends (and I assume he has some). Reports are he has a floor at the gilded palace at Trump Tower. He’ll be constrained in the White House. He won’t like the negativity around his father, either.
In fact the only little boy in the White House in my memory is John Jr. and he was just a toddler when his father was killed. How well is the place set up for a boychick? I can’t believe the atmosphere is healthy for any child. And Melania is by reports a protective mother.
If it proves that they adjust better than I project, then A.
Will go along with A then depending on other factors, maybe C, B on the bottom and the rest in order. Lot of smoke out there, not much heat or light to sure its cause or where it is.
A, with a distance chance of F. He won’t resign because he would be stigmatized as a loser. He won’t get impeached because the House will likely stay Republican, and his high crimes or misdemeanors won’t be serious enough to get a majority vote.
A. I don’t think his ego could handle resignation, although if the current trajectory continues I would think he might decide not to run in 2020 (maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part.)
F is not likely but the probability is higher than it should be.
I don’t believe that the Democrats think there is any real likelihood of B-E (nor do they actually want those things to come to pass) but they beat the drums because it serves their purpose in driving turnout for the midterms.
If that’s what the Democrats are banking on, the midterms will be a disaster for them. Negative advertising suppresses turnout.
A’s the most plausible outcome. I don’t think Trump is willing to admit he was a loser in the Presidential game, so B and C are out. The Democrats aren’t going to take over Congress, and the Republican’s aren’t going to do anything to suggest has gone wrong with their rule, which eliminates D and E. F isn’t likely in my estimation because the people who would be happy with President Pence are likely happy already with President Trump.
There is another scenario, however. Suppose Republicans retain control of Congress and do their best to govern the nation from there, leaving Trump free to attend rallies and go golfing and tweet his heart out, delighting the 30-40 % of the public that loves this kind of spectacle while adults try to keep the country going behind the scenes. We’ve got the Obama period to show Congress can more-or-less run the budget without Presidential input; we can imagine Cabinet officers happily doing their own thing, maybe conferring privately with Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan…. I don’t think it would be a bold innovative period of government, but as long as there’s enough pomp and bluster and partisan shouting, this would LOOK like government and maybe satisfy most Americans.
If that’s what the Democrats are banking on, the midterms will be a disaster for them. Negative advertising suppresses turnout.
I agree that it’s likely to turn out badly for them but can’t think of any other explanation for hysterical impeachment mongering unless it’s to get their base fired up, particularly with the prospect of needing majorities to impeach. That may be delusional but it seems like the approach they’ve chosen.
They’re not posturing or pretending. The movie they’re running in their heads tells them that Trump is the second coming of Hitler.
mike shupp- Wont happen. Trump looooooves being in power and looking like he runs things. I am sure he can’t wait to brag to some diplomat about how he has the nuclear codes, then tell them what they are just to prove it.
Steve
You’re missing an obvious option.
G. Drops dead from natural causes.
He is an old, overweight man who gets no exercise, has a quack doctor, and eats terribly. And, now he has the most stressful job in the world, and is very unhappy that it isn’t going well.
H. OD of vardenafil
They’re not posturing or pretending. The movie they’re running in their heads tells them that Trump is the second coming of Hitler.
I don’t think seasoned politicos, the Dem leadership believe that though. They’re the ones who decided to produce that movie with Trump as Hitler.
To be sure, they intensely dislike him. He isn’t one of them or of their class, and they rightfully find reasons for concern and even alarm. That is all rational…but on the other hand, he basically is a NY moderate, not really ideological, and there is plenty of common ground they could have found, they could have approached this as a way to undermine the GOP establishment, by siding with Trump on initiatives that would put a wedge between Trump’s base and the traditional conservative voter base. I think they could have been much better served in doing so, and they could still have done it while holding their noses and showing their distaste for Trump’s persona.