It may be hard to believe given the reporting in the American media but Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. A piece in the Washington Post reports that the Russians now appear to be pursuing an organized deliberate attack on Ukrainian infrastructure:
The Kremlin is carrying out strikes on infrastructure that is critical to Ukraine’s efforts to resupply its forces in their defense against Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian officials and the Pentagon said Wednesday.
A senior U.S. defense official, speaking to reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, said Ukraine is still able to move weapons through the country.
Russia’s targets on Tuesday and Wednesday included electrical substations, a railroad facility and a bridge in two major cities in western and central Ukraine. Strikes on Tuesday night caused severe damage at three electrical substations in Lviv, a critical hub for assistance entering the country from Eastern Europe, delaying trains and wiping out power for about a quarter of a million people.
“It was a deliberate blow to supply chains,†Lviv’s regional governor, Maksym Kozytskyy, said in a statement.
I don’t actually believe that this is a new effort although I suspect the Russians are more focused on it than they were previously. I think that Russia’s initial attacks against Kiev and other major population centers were a botched attempt at ending the war quickly and relatively cheaply. It was accompanied by attacks and raids against power stations, particularly nuclear sites. Now that Russian forces have been concentrated on eastern Ukraine attacks on infrastructure are more apparent. I also think that attacks on Ukrainian civilians should be viewed in that light. The Russians see the enemy’s will to fight as a legitimate target of war. To us it’s a war crime but to them it’s war.
Here are the developments I am watching
1) Spillover into the Middle East. The administration is pushing the Israelis to be more active in supplying Russia with arms. This has caused a precipitous decline in Russian-Israeli relations. The Russian Israeli understanding over Syria is breaking apart. Combined with the seeming collapse of Iran nuclear negotiations; the replacement of Russian forces with Iranian forces in Syria, the stage is set for a Israel/Iran war leading to a general war in the Middle East.
2) Spillover into Asia. This surprises me; but relations between Japan and Russia have deteriorated significantly; and into the breach steps North Korea. With a hawk about to be next President of South Korea, and North Korea testing ballistic missiles and indicating another nuclear test; tensions are racheting up rapidly. It raised my eyebrow when there are articles advocating for South Korea to pursue nuclear weapons (yes same prof as the famous BBC video). There’s also Taiwan; they were told they want won’t get much of their recent arms purchases because much of it has been diverted to Ukraine.
3) Economic dislocation — India had a record heat wave, which damaged its wheat crop, and spiked its demand for energy. I have to wonder where’s the threshold beyond which India has to make big purchases from Russia to prevent domestic unrest. Meanwhile, Indonesia banned exports of palm oil.
Iran has always been careful about avoiding direct confrontation so surprises me a bit. Would be a logistics hassle for them too.
Steve