I think that Mathieu von Rohr, writing at Der Spiegel, has it almost completely backwards:
So what is it that Russia wants? It wants to expand its influence in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and it wants to once again be on equal footing with the United States on the international stage. As recent events have shown, President Vladimir Putin is willing to use almost all means necessary in the pursuit of this aim. Russia doesn’t even shy away from conducting airstrikes on residential areas in Syria, bombing hospitals in the process. It is likewise forcing the Sunni population to take flight, thereby increasing the flow of refugees and destabilizing Europe and Turkey. It has become obvious that Russia is not a partner to the West, not even, as some had hoped, in fighting the Islamic State.
On the contrary, Russia has become a destructive actor.
I don’t know if that’s the German view or what it is but it looks to me cartoonish, with Russia cast as a mustache-twirling Snidely Whiplash. Here’s a simpler, more benign explanation: Russia doesn’t want to be surrounded by enemies. It can stand adversaries but it can’t tolerate antagonists, eager to chip away at the territory it considers its own. It doesn’t see an Islamist Turkey or Syria or a neo-fascist Ukraine as benign. Continuing in a slightly less rosy vein, there are plenty of Russians who are nostalgic for the old Soviet Union and wouldn’t mind restoring those borders.
The U. S. contrariwise is not just weak; it has been acting perversely for decades, encouraging its enemies, discouraging its friends, pursuing objectives that don’t help it and failing to recognize its real enemies. It’s really hard not to see the U. S. as insane.
The real question we should be asking ourselves is why have we defined Russian defeat as American victory?
It’s really hard not to see the U. S. as insane.
That’s all a matter of perspective. The interests it SAYS it is pursuing and the interests it is ACTUALLY pursing aren’t necessarily the same. Cui bono? Or perhaps, harkening back to more recent history, follow the money.
I don’t think it has to be either/or. Russia has legitimate interests and overblown (but not entirely crazy) fears. And Putin is an ambitious wanna-be tsar who is stoking nationalism to distract Russians from the fact that they remain a second-tier economy with very poor prospects going forward.
But as to Syria I fail to see why we’re upset that he’s willing to spend his money and Russian lives to impose some sort of order, however brutal, on a manifestly out-of-control situation. Are we supposed to be jealous?
What neo-cons don’t get is that they have demonstrated their abject incompetence when it comes to remaking the ME. The American voter won’t allow the US government to back a brutal monster like Assad, despite the evidence that he is actually better (for us and our allies) than the alternative. And it is pure fantasy to imagine that US bombs + feckless, uncommitted so-called moderates are going to take down Assad and Al Qaeda and ISIS.
If we want to remake the ME the best bet would be backing the Kurds against Turkey and help to establish a Kurdish state. We would have a reliable ally in the heart of the ME – an ally capable of fighting, unlike the rest of our pathetic, pusillanimous Arab “allies.”
In fact, when you think about it, the Kurds could be a model. We back Jews against Arabs, we back Kurds against Arabs and Turks, we could go looking for other outsider groups capable of doing something more than run away, run away! Any Zoroastrians left in Iran? And can they fight?
I don’t know that I disagree with anything in that comment, Michael, other than your remarks about the Kurds. I remain wary of them. As I’ve said before I’m suspicious of anybody the leaders of whose political parties are, coincidentally, their hereditary tribal chieftains.
But otherwise I largely agree. I repeat my question. Why are we so nostalgic for the Cold War? The Russians aren’t the Good Guys in the Middle East but they’re a heckuva lot better than the Bad Guys (and we’re supporting the Bad Guys).
The Russians aren’t wearing white hats in the Ukraine but the present Ukrainian government is not just wearing black hats, they’re wearing armbands with swastikas on them. Russia has interests and one of them is that they don’t want a neo-Nazi government in Ukraine. They’re silly that way.
TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP!
Which friends have we discouraged? This just seems like part of the litany to me. To be sure, I don’t think we have many friends, but I can’t think of any whom we have really discouraged. Prioritizing the interests of other countries who are not really our friends has been a big problem.
Steve
Open your eyes, man. Our actions since 9/11 have confused and discouraged what few friends we have, particularly the invasion of Iraq. UK, Canada, France. It isn’t hard to find.
You’re looking too hard for Obama criticism. It isn’t Obama criticism. It’s criticism of the U. S.
More recently the Japanese, South Koreans, and Filipinos are bewildered by our attitude towards Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. I think we’re playing that just about right but they are very, very nervous and President Obama does have a history of saying one thing and doing something else.
I would never hesitate to criticize Bush, but you really think we discouraged the UK and Canada by invading Iraq? Blair sold the UK on it too. Canada seemed to buy in. As to France, I am sure they were unhappy that we took so many shots at them over Iraq, but they were right there for us in Afghanistan. I am sure that they are all discouraged that there is no great tactic for stopping terror attacks, but that is hardly our fault.
What else? Libya? They asked us to be involved. Syria? Our best bet has always been minimal involvement. Maybe they wanted us to invade, but certainly not my sense. Granted, we keep prioritizing the needs of Saudi Arabia and Israel (not our friends) which makes everything confusing, but I think our friends have issues along those lines also. They certainly seemed pretty happy about the Iran deal.
I wouldnt really call the Japanese our friends either, but if following our own interests discourages them too bad. South Korea is a friend? Maybe, but then we have plenty of reason to be discouraged and disappointed by them. We should be out of there anyway.
Steve
Yes. I think that the Europeans, generally, think we’ve gone nuts since 9/11.