The Last Few Weeks Before the Midterms (Updated)

Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report provides his take on the status of things with just a couple of weeks before the midterm elections:

The extreme partisan polarization in recent years has yielded fewer “true independents,” ones who do not identify with or even lean toward either party, and fewer people voting split tickets. Indeed, few Democrats will now even consider voting for a Republican for anything, nor Republicans cast a ballot for a Democrat. With the party lines so rigorously followed, we now have higher floors and lower ceilings, meaning that in most competitive states and districts, the margins are rarely more than low- to mid-single digits and the trailing candidate usually remains within striking distance of the leader, hoping that circumstances or a key event will enable them to close the gap and surge or just edge ahead.

But just because there are fewer true independents or undecided voters in key races doesn’t mean they are any less important. Indeed, with both parties’ bases so thoroughly motivated, any meaningful growth in support has to come from those non-aligned voters in the middle.

After reviewing a number of very close races, he concludes:

To hold onto the barest majority possible, 218 seats, Democrats have to win 25 (81 percent) out of the 31 Toss Ups, while Republicans need to win just seven (23 percent) of the 31. If Democrats win every Toss Up race, they would end up with a net gain of one seat, a total of 223. If Republicans win every Toss Up, they would have a net gain of 29 seats. So constructing a bell curve would put the tails around one seat up for Democrats to 29 seats for Republicans, up to 242 seats. Although it is fairly rare for a party to win all of the Toss Ups, keep in mind that in 2020, when the Blue Wave turned into the Dead Sea in the final week, the GOP did just that.

Voters are deeply conflicted this year. Watch for that last gust of wind: Whichever way it goes can make a huge difference in so many of these really close races.

I’m not sure whether “too close to tell” or “we have reached the end of the trail in using polls as predictors” is a better way of summarizing his comments. If the midterms are, indeed, very close it’s the former; if they’re not close at all, it’s the latter.

Update

at 538 Nate Silver characterizes his take on who will hold the Senate in 2023 as “it’s {expletive deleted} close”:

If you’d asked me a month ago — or really even a week ago — which party’s position I’d rather be in, I would have said the Democrats. Now, I honestly don’t know.

Hat tip: in comments

I’m trying to figure out how to put my thoughts into words. In a “winner take all” system (like ours) I don’t think that “a 57% chance” actually has a referent. As the late Mayor Daley once put it “no matter what it looks like now somebody will win”. There’s a 100% chance of that happening. There’s also a 100% of the other side losing. When you reach into an urn containing black pebbles and white pebbles there’s 100% chance you’ll pull out either a black pebble or a white pebble. There is no chance you’ll pull out a gray pebble.

I also think that if polling hasn’t collapsed it’s in the process of collapsing. That’s the result of so many people either refusing to speak to pollsters or even lying to pollsters as is the case right now. Calling 250 people to obtain one response inherently biases the results. Especially if Democrats are less likely to answer the phone than Republicans or vice versa which I believe to be the case.