I don’t have enough time to do all of the cutting and pasting for this so I’ll just send you the links. Take a look at the graphs of COVID-19 cases and deaths for Italy alone at Worldometers. Also, check out both the linear and logarithmic versions of the graphs. The logarithmic graph tells you the trend.
Two observations. First, there’s a dogleg in the graph of cases. That is an artifact. It means they suddenly either changed the criteria or started keeping track of new cases in another way.
But more importantly, the trend is up. The Italians are going to see many, many more cases in the days and weeks to come. Maybe it will eventually start to trend down but right now it isn’t.
You could also take a look at the data for the U. S. Our experience is going to be a lot like the Italians’.
There is a high probability the peak of the crisis in Italy is 10-12 days away. In Hubei, that is what happened once the lockdown was imposed.
At this point – sheer fear / panic will ensure the extreme social distancing necessary to control the virus.
But it is going to be very ugly — Italy is worse then Hubei’s at its peak already.
There is still many things that can be done to avoid Italy’s fate here in the US.
Update on testing. It currently (meaning as of this morning) takes 24 hours to get results for us as they need to be sent out. Our lab now has the ability as do some local private labs but there are shortages on reagents I am told. We really need those “millions” of tests to show up.
Steve
Given everything is shutting down pretty fast now (disneyland, broadway, sports), the US R0 could be going down a lot.
I still don’t know if this is a variation of the flu, lifted by media hype, or movie style end of the world virus. My wife and I have decided our litmus test.
If Tom Hanks dies, this is a monster, if not, ease your concerns a bit.
Just read today that Cleveland Clinic has said they have developed a Coronavirus test kit that will take only 8 hours for a result. They received approval from the CDC to do their testing March 2nd, and 9 days later they were able to produce such a test. After it’s validated they expect to be using it by the end of the month – possibly for drive-thru testing.
Supposedly, policies within the CDC and FDA became more bureaucratic between 2009 and 2016, delaying approval processes for drugs and vaccines. Trump was able to address some of these inefficiencies in February, allowing labs to finally pursue testing without first applying for time-consuming FDA approval. That move probably is what helped the Cleveland Clinic’s ability to work on their test, which hopefully will prove to be as fast and accurate as they think it will be.
“Supposedly, ”
The key word, but it really doesn’t matter if is true. They had a pandemic response team set up so that if they needed to cut through routine procedures they could do that. They got rid of that team, then no one else on the team stopped in. They developed a faulty test that was just mind-boggling stupid. That test looked for viruses not seen in the US in many years. Private labs and academic labs petitioned to do tests. No one in the Trump administration, they are in charge of the FDA, would let them do that. If you want to be the leader, then you have to be responsible and lead. Trump keeps telling you there are millions of tests and anyone can get tested. They keep summing up the numbers of tests done and it is in the low thousands. I cant even get my own f7cking doctors tested. You get to sit in your nice safe home so you have the luxury of believing whatever Trump tells you but those of us living through are seeing this differently.
Steve
Dr. Fauci, along with Dr. Deborah Birx have repeatedly said previous testing models were not applicable, and that delays were caused more by bureaucratic stalemate policies practiced under the previous administration’s FDA and CDC.
Also, it was a mere 9 + weeks ago that COVID-19 was isolated, along with a delay from China in getting the virus’s genetic sequence to the US immediately. In the meantime the following government responses have taken place: flights from China were halted: a public health emergency called; time-saving changes to regulations; encouraging and developing alliances between the public and private sectors in lab testing; constant communication and guidelines issued to the public; currently promising test kits in the mill; and now ratcheting up this pandemic to a national state of emergency, temporarily loosening up even more red tape stumbling blocks in dealing with this virus. 47 deaths, 1600 + cases (rather than a 1000 deaths, millions infected, many hospitalizations 6 months into H1N1 until a national emergency called) and already a flurry of behind the scenes activity, including multiple sectors of the country pooling their resources, and behavioral patterns radically being altered – all in “stat†motion to stem the spread and mitigate this virus’s damage,
Consequently, IMO, it’s seriously questionable how that disbanded Ebola pandemic team would have moved with any more alacrity or success than the current task force, given a different “new†virus to figure out, a hostile country hiding vital information, and a polarized political counterpart, whose efforts were primarily focused on impeachment in January when the virus was first being recognized in this country as a potential pandemic problem.
It is March 13th. We still odnt have the tests. S Korea got them cranked out in a couple of weeks. Every other WHO country got them. We are almost unique in our inability. So your list is BS. A public health emergency may have called at some point, but POTUS was claiming it was hoax to make him look bad. The govt stopped private and academic labs from creating their own tests. A Pandemic team would have allowed that, or told POTUS he needed to cut tape to make it happen. Isn’t this the guy who likes to cut regulations by edict?
I have cited the evidence that H1N1 response was prepared immediately. You have no idea how stupid you sound repeating that.
Steve
This article is first hand and anecdotal, but the author believes virus was in Italy as early as December, which would explain much.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-quarantine-italy-mistakes
Perhaps the point Dr. Birx made about rapid testing in other countries being inaccurate, was missed. She and Dr. Fauci went on to comment about the more rigorous protocols expected in this country, that being a new virus a whole new testing model had to be developed, and that much was being done behind the scenes to design and effectuate ways to contain and mitigate the course of the virus. During yesterday’s news conference, alone, there was a demonstrable cooperative relationship seen developing between govt. and private industry to meet the demands incurred by this medical emergency. All people, including the president, were serious and on board with a collaborative intent to lower levels of contagion and death from a virus only identified in early January of this year.
However, no matter the number of resources spontaneously gathered to ward off this virus, there are those who continually refer back to the resignation of a pandemic expect and disbandment of his team by Bolton, as being a key factor in not managing the testing better. Thinning an oversized NSC cultivated under Obama, were reasons given behind Bolton’s action. And, allegations, that addressing future pandemics had been compromised, has been refuted by Morrison, who headed that Dept., adding that pandemic specialists had remained, and such allegations were “garbage.â€
As for the govt. stopping private and academic labs from creating their own testing, it was due to the FDA and CDC policies lingering from the prior administration prohibiting any tests to go forward without first going through a bureaucratic approval process. This was an “inherited†stopgap, not one devised by the current administration, and was rectified in late February leading to the many test responses now being tallied by a multitude of labs.
Finally, the pedestal that the H1N1 virus response has been placed on – comprising millions of infections, time lags, deaths, hospitalizations – continues to be questionable to me. So far – and this is being said cautiously – that response pales, IMO, to what is being activated via today’s COVID-19 response, in the wake of far fewer deaths and identified infections. This, will all change, of course, but what has already been rolled out as deterrents, seem to be viable, constructive ways to meet these challenges. Unfortunately, though, I think emphasis will be aimed at inferences of what might be wrong with this administration’s approach, versus what they are doing right.