My reaction to Iran’s “10 point plan” was different from that of the “unnamed official” that Axios said was “maximalist”. Demanding an end of economic sanctions and reparations for damages, Iran’s offer was more than that. My interpretation was that it was an insult bid.
Here’s how an insult bid works.
- Seller: I want $1,000 for it.
- Buyer: How about $500?
- Seller: $900.
- Buyer: How about 50 cents?
In commercial settings, an insult bid usually signals negotiations are over. Given his career experience I strongly suspect that President Trump understands them that way. His response (raise the asking price) supports that. In diplomacy it can sometimes be posturing but it often serves the same function. That is supported by reports that Iran has cut off negotiations.
I have never known it to be a good sign. It suggests to me not only that Iran is not ready to concede but that at least one side may be misjudging its leverage in the negotiations and therefore the range of outcomes actually available to it.
