I have been seeing a number of articles recently that talk about “the final Iowa results”. We will never know the actual results of the Iowa primary. Let me explain why.
Anyone who has ever seen the inner workings of an election knows that there is no such thing as an error-free election. I don’t know what the typical margins of errors in elections are but I would assume something from .25% to 5%. If the margin of victory is smaller than the margin of error, the “true” result cannot be determined.
Let’s look at some examples. In the 1960 presidential election Kennedy and Nixon were only separated by .17% of the total votes cast. Assume a margin of error of .5%, quite small. It would be quite likely that every time a recount was done, it would get a different result. That is why when, a few days after the election, Richard Nixon announced he would not seek a recount, it was the statesmanlike thing to do. Kennedy’s electoral vote total was such that it really didn’t matter if Nixon had, indeed, won the popular vote. It would have made no difference in the outcome. In reality there was no way to determine who had won the popular vote.
In the Iowa caucuses the present totals that are being reported are Pete Buttigieg 26.2% and Bernie Sanders 26.1%. They’re separated by .09% of the vote, almost unquestionably less than the margin of error.
If by “win” you mean who got the most votes, we don’t know and we will never know who won.
