The Glass Is Too Large

The editors of the Washington Post see the glass of our national response to COVID-19 as half-empty (at least):

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S disastrous response to the coronavirus pandemic is veering toward another wildly irresponsible turn. After first saying the virus would go away, then failing to properly boost the supply chains, then bungling the testing scale-up, then walking away and turning the burdens over to governors, then advocating a reopening in May that triggered a new virus firestorm, Mr. Trump has been asking questions about the strategy of relying on natural “herd immunity.” This is another way of taking a hands-off approach, protecting the most vulnerable while allowing the virus to spread until there is enough natural immunity in the population to block transmission.

Mr. Trump should ask very hard questions about this. An analysis by The Post showed that in the United States, with a population of 328 million, reaching a 65 percent threshold for herd immunity could lead to 2.13 million deaths. This was the pandemic approach in Sweden, and it did not turn out well.

but their conclusion looks pretty reasonable to me:

Ultimately, an effective vaccine or therapy can break the pandemic. Until then, what’s needed are concerted measures to slow viral transmission: wearing face masks; avoiding gatherings in enclosed spaces; testing, tracing and isolating the sick; and closures as necessary. The restrictions are hard after months of sacrifice. The economic and psychic toll is undeniable. But until a vaccine or drug arrives, there is no magic wand to make the virus disappear. Everyone must understand the virus is relentless, opportunistic and, for 181,000 Americans, so far, a real killer.

Meanwhile, the editors of the Wall Street Journal see the same glass as half-full:

Most states experienced flare-ups of varying degrees this summer as people gathered and travelled more. But outbreaks were worse in the South and West, for reasons that deserve more study but could include high rates of co-morbidities and more multigenerational households. Some U.S. nationals and migrant workers also brought the virus from Mexico.

But the U.S. seven-day rolling average of new cases has fallen by about 40% from its peak on July 25. Hospitalizations and deaths in hot spots peaked at about the same time in apparent contradiction to epidemiological models that have predicted two- to three-week lags between cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations are down by 62% in Texas, 60% in Florida, 48% in Utah, 45% in California, and 44% in Louisiana from their peaks, which all occurred between July 21 and 24. Arizona’s hospitalizations began increasing in late May, a week or two earlier than in most states, and have fallen 78% since topping out July 12.

Arizona has made so much progress that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo removed it from his quarantine list last week. Notably, hospitalizations have been falling at about the same rate in Texas, Florida and Arizona as in the Northeast this spring. A second shutdown wasn’t needed to crush these outbreaks.

Their conclusion, too, looks pretty reasonable to me:

Covid cases have been rising in some Midwest states, but the flare-ups so far are well below the spring Northeast debacle or the surge in the South and West. Flare-ups are inevitable until a vaccine is widely available, especially in places where there have been few cases. Nobody is suggesting the U.S. has achieved herd immunity and should now declare victory. Americans will have to behave cautiously for many more months, but it’s still worth taking stock of progress.

More and faster testing such as the low-cost rapid antigen test by Abbott Laboratories that the Food and Drug Administration approved last week will allow more schools and workplaces to reopen. The policy goal should be to mitigate the virus’s damage while allowing Americans to return to some semblance of normalcy.

As I have documented in the past, mortality due to COVID-19 in the U. S. among whites is about what it has been in Germany while mortality due to COVID-19 in the U. S. among black and Hispanics more closely resembles that of Brazil which should not be completely surprising if you think about it. We can and should do better but the way we must do it is by concentrating resources where they’re most needed which is in communities with largely black or Hispanic populations. That be done first and foremost at the state and local level but the federal government should play a part as well.

If we can’t make distinctions among different populations, COVID-19 will become yet another problem beyond our ability to manage.