The German Election

The results of the German election are coming in and as of this writing late Sunday afternoon Central Time they are represented by the graphic at the top of this post. Reuters reports:

For the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has come second in a German national election.

All other parties have refused to build a coalition with it, under a ‘firewall’ pact against the far right, but the AfD could prove a fearsome opponent.

“The vote is clear. Germans want political change and they want a coalition between blue (AfD) and black (conservative),” party leader Alice Weidel told a televised debate between party leaders after first poll projections.

“The CDU conservatives copied our manifesto almost entirely, they can do that, but they can’t put it into practice with leftist parties. That is why our hand is stretched out. We can speak to each other. Herr Merz doesn’t want to do that, perhaps others from the CDU will.”

She predicted if the CDU builds a coalition with the SPD and Greens, it would be an unstable government that won’t last four years.

As of this writing it is unclear whether the CDU/CSU coalition will be able to form a government with just the Social Democrats (SPD) or whether they’ll need to invite the Greens to join their government as well. As noted above that is likely to be unwieldy, like herding cats. Whether the coalition will require two or more partners depends on the final results.

One of the things that is interesting about the results is how dependent on older voters the CDU/CSU are (see the link for a breakdown).

I can’t speculate on whether the Germans are voting for change. I can see how they might want change but whether that’s what they’re signaling is beyond my ken. I think that Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) is high on their own supply if they actually think they’ll be invited to form a coalition with the CDU/CSU and that a coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD is very unlikely to produce change.