The French are going to the polls today to vote for a new president. I fully expect Emmanuel Macron to win re-election, indeed, I will be floored if he does not. As I see it the only way that would happen is by very low turnout and, although turnout has declined from 2017, I don’t think it’s that low.
I sincerely wish that American conservatives did not see Marine Le Pen as a friend and the American progressives did not see Macron as a kindred spirit. I think that stems from thinking of “left” and “right” in American terms rather than in the French context.
Update
On ABC This Week a French voter was quoted as saying the election was like choosing between cholera and the plague.
“ In the French overseas territories of Guadeloupe, Martinque and French Guayana, the allegedly “racist†or even “facist†Marine LePen scored a surprise upset against globalist incumbent Emmanuel Macron. In Guadeloupe, LePen scored 75% to Macron’s 25%, in Martinique 77.5% to Macron’s 22.5% and 65% in French Guayana to 35% for Macron.â€
Interestingly, these territories are primarily composed of black and Creole, with only 10-15% being white Europeans. Macron won these same territories back in 2017 by similar margins that LePen holds today. National results supposedly will start coming in around 2pm eastern time.
On the plus side, Le Pen would take France out of NATO, or at least remove French troops from the command structure. That would be a major step forward for peace in Europe.
I think the latest poll in France proper gives Macron a 10% lead, so he should remain in office. And, the drift towards a major, possibly nuclear, war in Europe and North America will continue.
The workers in 1914 Europe enthusiastically supported WW I, because they were nationalists, not socialists. The communists abandoned the working class, because it was clear than Marx and Engels were wrong, and the workers would not be revolutionaries. Instead we got the Frankfurt School and the March through the Institutions. The coming war will also result from the popular will, because the people are brain-washed.
The reason that Le Pen may do well in the French overseas territories is that turning them into French departments has not brought the reform and equality their people want. The residents increasingly come to believe that a revolution would be necessary and, well, Le Pen would be a revolution.
Exit polls are showing a rather easy win for Macron.
Not that easy, actually, at least not by French standards. He received 2/3s of the vote last time. But it’s working out much as I anticipated.