The Fracture Scenario

In an earlier post I outlined some possible scenarios for the outcome of our war with Iran. The list wasn’t exhaustive. Here’s another possibility.

Consider the map above. It lists the ethnic minorities in Iran. As you can see ethnic Persians make up just under half of Iranians. The balance are divided among Azeris, Kurds, Lur, Arabs, Baluchis, and others. Many if not most of these groups have active independence movements of varying degrees of militancy and coherence. If the war degrades the Iranian military, IRGC, and basiji militias sufficiently, ethnic fracture is a distinct possibility.

Those sections in Iran’s southwest labelled “Arabs” and “Lur” are where much of Iran’s oil is located.

The scale of disaster of this “fracture scenario” for Iran’s Persian population is hard to overestimate. Not only would they be materially denied oil revenue but the portion of Iran in which they remained would be nearly landlocked. Loss of Khuzestan would severely degrade revenue and strategic depth even if maritime access remained. Imagine a highly urbanized Afghanistan with a strong historic national identity, high literacy rate, and a deep bureaucratic tradition.

The “fracture scenario” is what I think of when I read reports like this one from al Arabiya English, noting President Trump’s meetings with Iranian dissident groups:

US President Donald Trump is open to supporting groups inside Iran willing to take up arms to overthrow the regime, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing US officials.

According to the report, Trump spoke on Sunday with Kurdish leaders and continues to engage other local actors who could exploit the Iranian regime’s current weakness.

“The Kurds have a sizable force along the Iraq-Iran border, and Israel has bombed positions in western Iran, leading to speculation that it is paving a path for a Kurdish advance,” the Journal reported.

Trump’s call with Kurdish leaders was first reported by Axios.

Officials told the Journal that Trump has not made a final decision on whether to provide arms, training or intelligence support to anti-regime groups.

Here’s my question: is U.S. policy drifting toward regime fracture as an implicit objective rather than regime behavior change? I have other questions:

• Who would control whatever nuclear assets remain? Presumably, the Persians but that’s not obvious.
• At what point would Russia or China intervene?
• The Kurdish Iranian section would presumably attempt to federate with Iraqi Kurdistan. How would the Turks react to that?
• What effect would all of this have on energy markets?