The Fog of War

An action that is presently going on in Israel’s war with Hamas is an excellent illustration of the Clausewitzian concept of the “fog of war” or uncertainty in war. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) is presently assaulting the Al Shifa hospital in the north of Gaza. One portrayal of the events (Human Rights Watch, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Al Jazeera, etc.) is that the Israelis are committing war crimes by the attack. The other (Foundation for Defense of Democracies, U. S. intelligence, the Times of Israel, the Wall Street Journal, etc.) say that Hamas is using the hospital as a base of operations and weapons storage facility and, from some sources, that the IDF is taking fire from the hospital and actively preventing patients and staff from evacuating the hospital.

Which is true? Either? Neither? Both? I have no idea. The only observations I can make are:

• Hamas has a documented history of doing precisely what has been alleged of their use of the hospital
• The IDF does not appear to be leveling the hospital
• If, for example, Hamas’s main command and control facility is in or underneath the hospital, it is a completely legitimate target, especially if care is taken to avoid killing or injuring civilians
• You might not know that from reading many major media outlets

Reuters
Al Jazeera
Times of Israel
Wall Street Journal

Two concluding points. Hamas fighters are primarily irregulars. As such they are not protected under the laws of war. And Israel is fighting on two fronts. It is fighting a pragmatic war and an information war. It appears to be doing well on their pragmatic war but may be losing their information war. They may have decided that they don’t care. That would be on-brand.