I think it was California Sen. Hiram Johnson who said “Truth is the first casualty of war” more than a century ago and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no exception. I literally have no idea of what is happening there. The Russian news sites certainly aren’t reliable sources, some of the pro-Russian sites are clearly Russian information operations sites, while others have no more idea than I do.
The source of my confusion is that I don’t know to what degree American news sites are effectively information operations sites anymore.
If you pay attention to the Russian news sites and pro-Russian sources, the Russians are engaged in a police action, defending ethnic Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians from persecution by neo-Nazis in the Ukraine or responding to provocations from the West which intends to do to Russia what was done to Yugoslavia and the Russian forces are proceeding slowly and methodically, meeting stiff resistance from the Ukrainians. If you pay attention to the American news sites, the Russian troops are incompetent and demoralized, definitely losing to the Ukrainians, and Putin is losing political support in Russia.
My predisposition is to believe that the Russians are meeting with unexpected resistance from the Ukrainians and that that the war is far from over.
I also think that events have cast significant doubt on John Mearsheimer’s claim that Putin’s objective is to wreck Ukraine rather than see it join NATO and the EU.
My inclination is to avoid drawing any conclusions until more time has passed.
I hope that the Ukrainians succeed in defending their independence and are willing to accept a pluralistic society, accommodating both Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking citizens.
Mostly agree with you here. Too much of this sounds like Baghdad Bob material. (I still have my Baghdad Bob T shirt.) That said the claim made by Russia about removing Nazis is not even remotely believable. I doubt that Russia is getting its butt kicked per some reports but agree they are probably meeting more resistance than expected.
Steve
We should define “wreck”.
My understanding of Mearsheimer’s talk in 2015, he illuded that “wreck” as in Ukraine had lost de-facto sovereignty in the Donbass, mired in a low level conflict that would cause 14000 deaths before this year, with the resources spent on the conflict leaving the economy as a basket case seeking IMF handouts.
And while the Russians haven’t (yet) leveled any Ukrainian cities like they did in Aleppo or Grozny, this is still modern war, just the infrastructure damage by the Russians and from defense actions by Ukrainians could total a tens to hundreds of billions of dollars. That’s not to mention the Ukrainian army is probably wrecked.
Don’t forget the refugees, or its economy has stopped dead.
“If you pay attention to the American news sites, the Russian troops are incompetent and demoralized, definitely losing to the Ukrainians, and Putin is losing political support in Russia.”
I think its important to separate pundits and politicians from journalists, particularly those on site. I channel surf continually. The on the ground reporting from Fox, CNN, BBC and CBS has actually been pretty straightforward and devoid of spin or political agenda. In particular Brett Bair and Jennifer Griffin at Fox have played it straight and simply asked the people on the ground, or contacts they have, questions and let them respond as they see fit. Pundits and pols, well, its just red meat.
I understand the nature of Jen Psaki’s job, but when it comes to war one would hope for a more straightforward approach. Her spinning has been miserable.
Compare these two statements:
1. “The Russians have not been able to take any major Ukrainian cities.”
2. “The Russians have not taken any major Ukrainian cities.”
I heard the first on a network newscast this morning. It’s an opinion hiding inside a statement of fact. The second is a plain statement of fact.
As I say, my concern about the propaganda is surprises. If we’re getting deluged with propaganda and things don’t turn out the way the propaganda is leading us to expect, it may force some very bad decisions.
I don’t listen to Fox News so I wouldn’t know if its coverage is good, bad, or indifferent.
I am off this week so have been watching both CNN and Fox at times. Their live feeds from Ukraine have both been generally good. When the talkers come on the Fox people concentrate on trying to find ways to blame Biden for everything but the in country stuff has been good. CNN had one of the in country Fox guys on their feed I think. It is concentrated on the Ukrainian POV so still dont think it represents a complete or accurate picture.
Steve