I’m soliciting comments to consider in a post I’m writing on the field of Democratic candidates as it stands now. I doubt that many more will throw their hats into the ring and I wouldn’t be surprised if some withdrew even before the primaries and caucuses begin.
I can think of several for whom I can see myself voting, several for whom I would not vote, and several that I can’t see what possesses them in running.
What do you think the odds of the candidate who finally emerges victorious from the pack being a white guy over 70 years old? About a third of the announced candidates have the demographic profile.
As you might imagine, I’m not enamored by the crew. But I will give it legitimate consideration. My kneejerk is Biden on policy. But he is about to become embroiled in the Ukrainian problem, along with his son. And its hard to imagine he was not fully informed on the Trump spying problem. When the singers start singing they are going to need a pretty effective buffer, what with election meddling being all important and such (snicker).
I don’t find any of them compelling. (I only see three white guys over 70 on the most recent list I could find, and dont think Gravel is really serious.) Hickenlooper looks interesting. Maybe Andy knows him better? Have heard Butagieg a couple times on radio while on long drives and he comes across well but having two POTUS in a row with little experience is worrisome. Really hope Sanders doesn’t win the nomination.
Steve
Is it to be restoration vs revolution? Or can both be blended to …. restorlution ?!
My own preference would be for an experienced candidate under the age of 70 who’s actually interested in retail politics and wants to be President of the United States rather than the president of California and New York.
The problem the Democrats face is that Barack Obama’s disinterest in retail politics and the Republican gains in state houses have put the Democrats into a bind. The prospective candidates are either too old or local politicians who need more experience.
A table of non-incumbent democratic nominees since 1932, their age on election year, and whether they won.
FDR . 50 Won
Stevenson 52 Lost
Stevenson 56 Lost
JFK 43 Won
Humphey 57 Lost
McGovern 50 Lost
Carter 52 Won
Mondale 56 Lost
Dukakis 55 Lost
Clinton 46 Won
Gore 52 Lost
Kerry 61 Lost
Obama 47 Won
Clinton 69 Lost
Going by history. Democrats maybe best served by nominating someone younger than 52.
The same exercise on Republicans, except we start in 1928.
Hoover 54 Won
Landon 49 Lost
Willkie 48 Lost
Dewie 42 Lost
Dewie 42 Lost
Eisenhower 62 Won
Nixon 47 Lost
Goldwater 55 Lost
Nixon 55 Won
Reagan 69 Won
Bush 64 Won
Dole 73 Lost
Bush 54 Won
McCain 72 Lost
Romney 65 Lost
Trump 70 Won
Republicans voters like their nominees to be older. No nominee under the age of 52 since Nixon in 1960.
I haven’t followed the candidates all that closely, I’ll give some first impressions below based on what little I know.
The exception among the little-knowns nationally is Hickenlooper, who was governor of my home state. I like him because he’s a pragmatist and not an ideologue. He’s got business and executive experience. My main concern with him is that I don’t know much about his foreign policy views, but I suspect his pragmatism would follow him there.
Biden: Too old, too much baggage
Sanders: Too old, too extreme in terms of policy – basically a crony capitalist disguised as a socialist.
Booker: Don’t know much about him, but being from New Jersey is a strike against him.
Buttigieg: Plus that he’s an Afghan vet, don’t know much else except I think it’s a big jump from Mayor to President and his last name is too hard to spell.
Castro: Don’t know anything about him
Delany: Same
Gabbard: A vet, which is a plus and she’s a non-interventionist, another plus. Her domestic policy is too progressive for my tastes.
Gillibrand: Don’t know much, but my impression she is one of those politicians who bends easily to whichever direction the wind is blowing. no thanks.
Gravel: Hadn’t heard anything about this guy and didn’t know he was running until I saw his name on the Wikipedia page.
Harris: Strikes me as an authoritarian. She is already loudly announcing all the things she plans to via Executive fiat. No thanks.
Inslee: Didn’t know he was running, don’t know anything about him.
Klobuchar: I’ve read about how she treats her staff – not someone I’d want running the WH.
Messam: Don’t know anything about him.
Moulton: Same
Beto: Don’t know much except some progressives seem obsessed with him. He has a king of Kennedy air about him, maybe that explains it.
Ryan: Don’t know anything about him.
Swalwell: same
Warren: strikes me as too much a schemer (not a very good one) and also one that bends with the wind.
Williamson: Never heard of her, but her profession is listed as “activist” so no thanks.
Yang: Don’t know much except he a business guy.
Yeah, so basically I’m ignorant, but then again I’m not a Democrat.
Joe Biden will never be President of the US.
When Sen. Cory Booker was the Newark mayor, he was the town superhero. (More than once, he has rescued women, children, and pets.)
The Democratic nominee may not be on any list, yet.