I think that this sort of analysis:
Well, tenure-track positions in my field have about 150 applicants each. Multiply that 0.6 percent chance of getting any given job by the 10 or so appropriate positions in the entire world, and you have about that same 6 percent chance of “success.â€
explains why they decided to get doctorates in literature in the first place.
OK, I need a stats tutor, because this generally makes sense. Within a universe of 150 job-seekers, there are 10 jobs, which should mean, all things being equal, a job seeker has (10/150) or 6.67% chance of getting the job.
What seems to be missing are variations in time. At a given time, there may be 150 job-seekers for 10 jobs, but there are not a fixed number of either. How frequently do new jobs open up, and how many new job seekers are there each year and how many job seekers opt out of academia each year?
BTW/ great scientists don’t need math:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323611604578398943650327184.html
All they apparently need is to have gotten into the business before the competition raised the bar.
I think it depends on whether you think the outcomes are linked. If they are, and you have exactly 10 jobs for exactly 150 job seekers, then the math above is right; if they are independent (for example, if there are actually more than 150 people looking for jobs, but some people don’t apply to some jobs – wrong region, don’t like the university, etc.), then your chances of getting any given job is 1/150 (if all universities have 150 applicants; you’d think Harvard would have more than a local state college, but this is obviously just an example).
Then your chances of getting a job are 1/150 times 6, or 4% (is really a lot lower!). You might actually be able to apply over the course of two or three years, but I think your chances are lower each year and after a couple years, your degree is ‘stale’ and you’re functionally out of the job market unless you start using your degree in creative ways (or take a lot of adjunct jobs).
Oops, just re-read this: There are 10 jobs, not 6, so Shaw, I think you’re right.
It’s less the math than the assumptions. Here’s one of them: it assumes that being selected for one of the tenure track positions is random. It may be true that the average chance of getting one of the few jobs is .6%. That doesn’t imply that everybody has an equal chance. For some of the applicants the chance may be 50-50. For others it might be .006%.
I may have some advantage from checking my kids’ math homework regularly, so I’m used to dumb down assumptions. And I’m also trying to use this special opportunity the school has given me to be an unpaid tutor to learn or re-learn some stuff. Thanks for the responses.