When COVID-19 first emerged all sorts of speculations were flying around, fast and furious. Was it zoonotic as had been the case for other viruses? Was it an attack by a bioweapon? Was it the result of an accidental leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology? Holding a view other than the one approved for your tribe was apostasy. Then the FBI decided it probably was spread by a lab accident. And now the Department of Energy has decided the same thing. At the Wall Street Journal Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel report:
WASHINGTON—The U.S. Energy Department has concluded that the Covid pandemic most likely arose from a laboratory leak, according to a classified intelligence report recently provided to the White House and key members of Congress.
The shift by the Energy Department, which previously was undecided on how the virus emerged, is noted in an update to a 2021 document by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines’s office.
The new report highlights how different parts of the intelligence community have arrived at disparate judgments about the pandemic’s origin. The Energy Department now joins the Federal Bureau of Investigation in saying the virus likely spread via a mishap at a Chinese laboratory. Four other agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, still judge that it was likely the result of a natural transmission, and two are undecided.
The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.
I guess I’m in the same camp as the two intelligence agencies that are undecided. Although the persistence theory would lead you to suspect that COVID-19 was zoonotic in origin, that theory is only good until it isn’t. I don’t think we know yet and may never know.
As I’ve said before I think the greatest likelihood of the Chinese government being forthcoming with their best evidence against the lab leak hypothesis is for a civil suit against the Chinese government for damages related to COVID-19 to proceed. That doesn’t require proof beyond reasonable doubt, only a preponderance of the evidence.
It’s important to note that the DOE assessment is “low confidence” which means it’s based on some combination of the following:
– New, unverified, or contradictory info
– Sources (or a source) that are not consistently reliable
– The amount of assumption necessary to support the conclusion.
I don’t think it changes much. As far as I can tell, there is plenty of evidence that would support one of the two main theories as well as potential alternative theories that are not often discussed. At the same time, there is no evidence that disproves any of these theories. So there is no definitive or reasonably definitive answer.
Yep. That’s certainly where I am. Furthermore, I don’t believe we can arrive at a definitive answer without more cooperation from China than we’re receiving.
Ron Unz, at http://www.unz.com, continues to believe and argue that covid-19 is a biowarfare product of USAMRIID, probably made at the Ft. Detrick biowarfare laboratory, and planted in Wuhan province during the 2019 International Military Games by US soldiers. He also points out that in the previous two years there were outbreaks of swine flu and bird flu in China that decimated the herds and flocks.
In that case, the US intelligence agencies are merely putting out a cover story for their military friends.
As evil an mendacious as our “elites” are, I cannot believe they were so stupid as to not realize a serious blowback existed. But maybe they are.
I continue to believe covid-19 is a natural product of the East Asian paddy system. That system mixes and matches people, cattle, chickens, wild animals, rodents, migratory birds, and each year it produces novel viruses.
All the influenza viruses and all the previous coronaviruses are known to be products of that ecosystem, so my money is still on covid being a natural product.
However, if you are going to raise the lab-release theory, then you have to include USAMRIID. Cui bono? Only the US government.
There is no new evidence supporting the bioweapon hypothesis. When there is I’ll comment on it.
If it’s a bioweapon it’s a really crummy one. It meets no standard for an effective bioweapon.
I’ve always said when you want to find a wet market where zoonotic transfer occurs………………………go near a virus lab.
It has taken over 10 years to find the origins of other viruses. Too early to draw conclusions.
Steve
Since this is a science topic note that the Biden admin is promoting SMRs. Again, it sounds like quite a bit on the technology side needs to be resolved. Even in countries that are essentially regulation free these are taking a while to develop. It looks like the US is about as far along as anyone.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/02/19/coal-nuclear-smr-modular/
Steve
It’s funny you should mention that. I was entertaining the idea of an update post on small modular reactors. Although I support the idea the performance of the projects to produce small modular reactors has been disappointing. They’re running into the same problems as ordinary bespoke designs. Bob Sykes has commented critically about them in the past.
No SMRs are presently in production. All are still at the proposal stage and the longer the delays the greater the cost overruns. If the sponsors are entertaining them for cost reasons, overruns can kill the projects entirely.
I suspect that China or possibly India will beat us to the draw in installing the first SMRs. The problem with this assertion:
is that the delays are mostly caused by business or regulatory considerations and the business considerations are much influenced by the regulatory ones. It’s not really a new technology—reactors reasonably characterized as SMRs have been installed on submarines and aircraft carriers for 60 years.
It looks like some are in construction. He’s, we have them on military craft but we need ones that are financially viable. Advocates for nuclear keep implying or asserting that all of the technical issues are sorted out and its all the fault of govt we dont have them already. The evidence is pretty clear that they still have issues. Also it is notable that the Biden admin is subsidizing them and John Kerry, one of those accused of opposing nuclear power because he is a Dem, advocates for them.
Steve