The EU Fiasco

Finally. Somebody who sees Germany and the entire EU experiment more as I do. It’s Jakub Grygiel at The American Interest:

In blunter terms, the EU promise was that Germany would not dominate Europe; Germany would become Europeanized rather than Europe Prussianized.

The EU has succeeded, but only to a degree. Berlin is not Europe’s capital—indeed, Europe has no capital. But German power is not containable by the EU and, after Brexit, will be even less so. The 2008 financial crisis showed to the debt-ridden Southern European states that German power is decisive and opposing it in financial matters is futile. More disturbingly, Berlin has no qualms of pursuing policies that undermine the security of other EU members. Two policies in particular are worth recalling. In 2015 Chancellor Merkel opened Germany’s borders to, what turned out to be, hundreds of thousands refugees. While she won widespread international admiration from Bono and the UN, her own electorate began to have serious doubts. And other European countries, on the forefront of the migration crisis, resented the unilateral German decision which immediately affected them and over which they had no say.

The second decision was to strike a dubious deal with Russia to build a second gas pipeline (Nord Stream 2) that has no economic value but enormous geopolitical consequences: by not having to cross Ukraine and Central Europe, Russian gas can be delivered directly to German industries while Moscow can threaten to cut off supplies to states deemed by it to be part of its sphere of influence. This German decision abets Russian imperial aspirations toward Ukraine as well as toward EU member states in Central Europe. Berlin may speak highly of the EU, but wields its power as it wishes, in open disdain of other EU members.

The harsh reality is that the European Union was a project that may have had a chance in a benign geopolitical environment. In a competitive world, with antagonistic external powers and growing internal imbalances, the EU is failing.

No, Berlin is not Europe’s capitol. Whatever Brussels’s pretensions, Europe is ruled from Frankfurt so it’s a distinction without a difference.

The key points to keep in mind are that nations follow their interests and that Germany’s interests are not only not ours, they’re contrary to ours. Why do we pursue them? NATO, the ur-European Union, was described as having the triple purposes of keeping Germany down, the Soviets out, and the Americans in. At this point all of those have failed and now Germany is keeping the countries of southern and eastern Europe down. If Germany refuses to sweeten the deal with France, the whole thing could come tumbling down like a house of cards.