Now that the presidential debates are over and there are just two weeks until the election the endorsements are starting to fly fast and thick. Yesterday The New York Times endorsed Kerry which surprised no one. The Chicago Tribune endorsed Bush which surprised me, anyway.
Bloggers are starting to endorse candidates, too. Or at least post strong statements of support for the candidates they’ve supported all along.
Greg Djerejian of Belgravia Dispatch explains why he supports Bush. He doesn’t think that Kerry gets it:
I don’t believe, in his gut, Kerry believes that we face an existential challenge with regard to the war on terror.
Edward_ of the group blog Obsidian Wings is a blogger whose thoughts and work I’ve come to admire greatly. I think that Edward’s heart is definitely in the right place and his head is screwed on pretty well, too. After a litany of the mistakes that Mr. Bush has made in his handling of U. S. security, he concludes a fine post, WWKD (What Would Kerry Do) with:
Really, what are these people worried Kerry would do as Commander-in-Chief that would put us in a worse position than we find ourselves under Bush? He’s assured us he won’t cut and run in Iraq, as some continue to insist. He’s assured us he won’t give any outside body a veto over his decision to take action, as some continue to insist. He’s demonstrated personally, in battle, that he remains cool, collected, and focused…valuing his fellow Americans’ lives above all, even when there’s personal danger to himself.
What do they fear he’d do? Seriously, I just don’t get it.
I’d describe myself as Bush-leaning. I’ve never been an ardent Bush supporter. I didn’t vote for Bush last time around. I’m more in the hold-your-nose-and-vote-for-Bush camp. But I find it hard to bring myself to support Mr. Kerry.
In order to answer Edward’s question I think you have to consider the circumstances under which a President Kerry would come to power and what motivates men who have the ego and ambition to seek the presidency. Foretelling the future is a chancy thing. I frequently have problems in figuring out what went on in the past. But here’s my half-hearted (pick your item of anatomy) prediction. One of the following will happen:
- Kerry wins by a narrow margin (40%).
This alternative assumes that Kerry takes the states that Gore took in 2000 plus Florida (or some other good-sized state that Gore didn’t take).
- Bush wins by a narrow margin (45%).
This alternative assumes that Bush takes the states he took in 2000 (or the equivalent). Changes in apportionment after the 2000 census would give Bush a more substantial victory than last time around. Hence the 45%.
- Bush wins by a lot (15%).
This alternative assumes that Bush takes the states he took in 2000 plus several of the swing states that went for Gore last time around. That plus the apportionment point I mention above would give Bush a major victory.
I just can’t envision a major victory for Kerry. It doesn’t look to me like the numbers are there.
The Kerry Administration would come into power with an angry Republican opposition still in control of the House and in all likelihood in control of the Senate. The divisions within his own party suggest a situation not unlike herding cats, likely to turn on him as they did on Carter under similar circumstances.
Now presidents seek power. They want to hold onto their office and get re-elected. If they didn’t they wouldn’t seek the office to begin with.
So what would he do—under those circumstances—if another crisis materializes? If he refuses to react or dithers in Hamlet-like indecision, he would confirm the worst fears of his political opponents and of his moderate supporters as well. No one would cut him any slack. How strong would arguments that politics stopped at the water’s edge or that you shouldn’t change horses in midstream be? Kerry has campaigned against both of those propositions so they won’t be available to him. There would be an immediate movement to remove him.
So what would Kerry do? I think he’d be likely to over-react in self defense. He doesn’t really have any other option.
Bush doesn’t have anything to prove. But Kerry does.
