Check out Sean Trende’s analysis of why Mitt Romney will win the presidential election. It boils down to a) no incumbent has ever won with as small a lead at this point as Obama has, b) Romney hasn’t started spending yet and he’s got a lot to spend, and c) everything else is just smoke:
Had pollsters turned on their likely-voter screens throughout, Romney and Obama probably would have been trading leads throughout the spring and summer. After all, Romney’s poll numbers would have been two-to-three points higher (given the average movement we saw when pollsters activated their likely-voter screens), and Obama’s lead fluctuated between 0.2 points and 3.8 points.
As I have been saying for some time, it’s going to be very, very close and I honestly think that’s what both campaigns believe as well. That’s why we’re seeing the hyperbolic reports of voter fraud and voter suppression from the Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Both are real but both represent very, very small numbers of votes, only significant when the outcome is too close to call.
Over at OTB, at least half the posts are about Romney having little chance of winning. In many of these posts, there is an apoplectic consternation that Republicans and conservatives refuse to accept the poll numbers, and I do not get it. The posts seem to be trying to convince the obstinate that they are wrong.
I could understand a post or two, but I do not understand the excessively large numbers posts. On 11/07, the losers will be shown to be wrong. I do not get it.
(This is not about the polls.)
Doug seems very concerned about distinguishing himself from the social conservatives who dominate the present Republican party organization.
A lot of Republicans/conservatives think the negative drumbeat on Romney’s polling is an effort at suppressing the Republican vote. convince everyone the (R) can’t win and the (R) voters won’t go out and vote in large numbers. Looking at some of the crap in the polls in recent weeks that seems as likely an explanation as any for the polling results.
The large number of posts about why Romney can’t win would fit in with that strategy.
…
Went driving around Winter Garden yesterday to look at yard signs. (Was over there anyway for story time for the daughter.) In 2008 I had seen a lot of McCain signs over there. Yesterday I counted 28 yard signs in WG – for Daniel Webster, their Congressman. (My Congresswoman, just a few miles away, has her headquarters in Jacksonville – my district is heavily gerrymandered to insure a black Representative.) Webster is a Republican. That included two on commercial property and the rest were on private lots in a nice neighborhood. (It was more than 28 signs, actually, but if I yard had two or three I only counted it once.)
A few of those yards also had signs up for John Teg (Republican Sheriff candidate for Orange County), and a few houses (no more than five) only had signs for John Teg. I did not see one single sign for Mitt Romney. I still haven’t seen one single yard sign for Romney, and I haven’t seen any for Obama either. We had a lot of McCain and Obama yard signs around town in 2008.
While driving around (this only took about 15 minutes, tops) I saw a woman walking a dog in front of one of the Webster houses. I stopped and asked her (with polite preferences to lessen (I hope) the craziness of what I was doing) why all the Webster signs but no Romney signs. She said she was just there to walk the dog, that it was her mother’s house, so she wasn’t sure. But she was pretty sure Webster was actually from Winter Garden (he is, I now know) and that was the reason for all the local support for him.
My wife has seen two more Obama bumper stickers. That puts him and Romney about even. Both bumper stickers were on large, expensive gas-guzzling vehicles that also had bumper stickers indicating the drivers were tree huggers, too. (Yeah, I enjoy the irony.)
Anyway I continue to believe that it is Romney’s to lose, but that there is very little enthusiasm FOR either candidate.
NOTE: Webster had been a local & state politician for some time before getting termed out of the Florida state senate in 2008. He got drafted, seemingly against his will, to run against the execrable Alan Grayson in 2010, a race he won.
BONUS: Grayson, by the way, is probably back on his way to the House of Representatives, though, as he is now running in another district. He spent a lot of money during the primary – on the Republican side. He tried and succeeded in spending enough money to cherry-pick his opponent in the general election. Smart, and typically sleazy.
TastyBits
You’re right about the lockstep of opinion over at OTB. Today, though, I’m starting to ‘feel’ it’s slipping away from Romney. For a long time it’s been known that the key Obama strategy was to get out in front of Romney (spend a lot of money at the get go), define him in a personal unfavorable light (character assassination), put that image in cement (roll out a constant stream of trivial negatives — the latest being the taped 47%), and then continue to pump up Obama’s personable side, as his record is one that is not worthy to run on.
Bernie Goldberg summarized the race yesterday by saying that Obama is a good politician, a better candidate than Romney, and a bad president. But, it will be the first two qualities which are attractive assets in an election that is oftentimes primarily based on ‘popularity’ and charisma. I think that Romney is awkward and uncomfortable in going out there and selling himself and his political philosophies, but has the potential of making a solid president. However, that may be a moot discussion or realization if Obama wins on his much talked about and admired interpersonal skills.
convince everyone the (R) can’t win and the (R) voters won’t go out and vote in large numbers.
Which is also the reason many believe Dan Rather called the Florida election in 2000 when the polls were still open. The thinking goes that stating Florida was a big win for Gore would have made the (very conservative) voters in the panhandle (where the polls were still open) give up and go home in disgust. I assumed that it was simply incompetence on Rather’s and CBS’s part, but after they got caught forging documents about GWB’s record a few years later I’m not so sure anymore.
jan, I wouldn’t worry about that. In Gallup’s Daily Tracking Poll (three day rolling average), Romney just pulled into a tie today. That includes a couple of days of polling from the “47%” narrative, and also includes some skewed (IMO) sampling decisions from Gallup.
What’s worse is that today the White House has had to come out and admit that what the President and Secretary of State over the last week, that the assassination of our Ambassador in Libya was the result of rioters pissed off about some film, is bullshit. It looks more and more certain that there was no demonstration at the Libyan Consulate, that it started out completely as an attack. In other words, what the President told David Letterman two nights ago was bullshit, and if he didn’t know it was bullshit then it is because he wasn’t doing his job. (Too busy getting ready to make it rain with Jay Z and Beyonce, I guess.)
There’s also supposedly some ad the US government is airing in Pakistan, apologizing for that film.
I don’t think this kind of thing is going to play very well with the American public overall – it manages to look feckless, incompetent and completely lacking in principles in one fell swope.
So once again the White House is having to distance the President from what the President has just said. This kind of crap is going to start having an impact.
Icepick
With so many polls and headlines accompanying those polls, all saying that Romney should just hang it up, there is a sense of confusion if not dowright low morale in republican circles.
I personally think that the editing of the Palestinian comments made by Corn, dealing with Romney’s entire comment, is just one example of the constant tinkering going on in dem circles. They are running a brilliant campaign of obfuscation and issue derailment, and it appears to be working.
Icepick
Just saw your response…
Yeah, I saw that Gallup poll as well. And, while it’s encouraging, Rasmussen has ironically been dipping downwards in it’s figures for Romney. I probably shouldn’t watch these polls as much as I do as they are a real mind twister.
As for the Benghazi/ME violence… it has been such a bold-face skirting the truth on what is happening there by the Obama Adminiistration. Instead of Susan Rice coming out and giving a neutral talking point, she emphasized the film as being the only culprit in the viewfinder, directly conflicting with the Libyan president and others on the ground. I’m just shaking my head…
You’re ahead of me on knowing about any apology ad out there. But, it wouldn’t surprise me, as Obama has made it very clear his wishes to be nice with Islam, at the cost of bending over backwards and looking too cooperative, and consequently weak, over here.
They are running a brilliant campaign of obfuscation and issue derailment, and it appears to be working.
I disagree on both counts. First, I don’t think it is brilliant because it is increasingly obvious. The phrase from 2004 (?) is coming to mind: “We can fact check your ass!”
Second, if Gallup has Romney pulling even, that doesn’t look so good for the President.
Plus, at some point people will stop feeling despondent and will start getting pissed off.
Just remember, according to polls Carter had two terms, and Mondale & Dukakis both won in landslides. Just ignore the polls because there’s only one that counts.
In my hypothetical Constitution I would ban all public polling and reporting of same for three months in front of any general election. It is one of only two limitations of free speech that I would support. And yes, it would be purely for the selfish reason that I’m sick of fucking opinion polls.
“U.S. Embassy advertisements condemning an anti-Islam video appeared on Pakistani television ”
Why is this an apology? I condemned torture during the previous admin. It was not an apology.
Steve
In my hypothetical Constitution I would ban all public polling and reporting of same for three months in front of any general election.
Joe Trippi said the same thing this morning.
steve, what the Hell business does the US government have condemning the lawful speech of private citizens? (And I will mention that I just heard a report that the US government is going to try again to get Google to take down the offending video.) What business do they have AGREEING WITH AL QAEDA against a US citizen exercising his unalienable rights?
Did they condemn South Park? Have they condemned Bill Maher’s comments and the film he did on religion? Since religion is now sacrosanct will Obama resign because of his denigrating evangelicals for clinging to their religion bitterly? Will Hillary resign for laughing at “The Book of Mormon” in public? Will the whole nation resign for having disrespected someone’s religion somewhere sometime? (As everyone over the age of ten has told or laughed at a joke along the lines of “A priest, a rabbi and a minister walk into a bar….”) Will it be necessary for them to condemn the comments of every dumb ass* who ever posts something anti-Islamic on a website?
It isn’t their job to run around condemning lawful, free speech (and goddamn nearly all speech is lawful, a hard-won right) just because some insane mob of a religion will use it for an excuse to commit violence. That gives the violent mob a veto over everything. Their concern for religious sensibilities seems strangely focused on not offending the religion of Hussein’s father, and only that. (It’s not like they haven’t been pushing the anti-Mormon thing these last few months.)
* And yes, I am
Spartacusthat dumb ass.I’ll note that Obama has been fond of stating “This is a teachable moment … ” and then going on to lecture the American public on how stupid they are. Okay, Barry, time to ramp up you arrogance for the coreligionists of your father and give them the condescending lecture on the meaning of free speech.
The supposed anti-Islamic film was a small, irrelevant piece on youtube. It was not created by the U.S., and was not supported or ginned up by this country. The fact that it was used as a pawn or an excuse to arouse violent sentiment overseas, IMO does not warrant any kind of official apology from this country.
I find it offensive to see an American flag being trampled and burned by people in the Middle East. But, I have to live with those images and not go on a rampage of terror because of it, and expect to be given an apology from Pakistan or Libya.
I find it offensive to see an American flag being trampled and burned by people in the Middle East.
I don’t object to that per se, although I do have two caveats. First, they’d better bring flags they bought for the burning, and not expect to steal on off an embassy. Second, I wish they’d buy “Made in America” American flags, and not those made in China. Yes, I’d like to accrue the benefits of trade from these anti-American riots!
Here’s the headwind that Obama is facing. You may have to hit the stop button while it’s loading.
@jan
The “you didn’t build that” statement was going to cost President Obama the race. In a week the 47% comment will be forgotten. The number of people following this nonsense is minuscule. I am a political junkie, and I am tired of it. Almost everything pro-Obama, pro-Romney, anti-Obama, anti-Obama gets turned off.
The election will hinge on Clinton Democrats. If Bill Clinton can get them to vote for President Obama, he wins. If they vote for Romney he wins. If they stay at home, take your pick.
As soon as the polls flip, I would not get too excited.
I find it offensive to see an American flag being trampled and burned by people in the Middle East. …
@Icepick
You beat me to it on both counts. If they are going to buy US made flags, I would encourage it, and while they are burning flags, they are engaging in other activities.
Measuring undecideds, by Jim Geraghty gives another demographic aspect of this race.
TastyBits, I’ve turned into a political junkie, of sorts, during this presidential race. It’s hard living with myself, these days!
TastyBits, I’ve turned into a political junkie, of sorts, during this presidential race. It’s hard living with myself, these days!
jan, walk away from it for a week. We aren’t even to the debates yet. Not everyone is psychotic enough to be able to follow this stuff all the time.