The editors of the New York Times have a plan for increasing federal tax revenues without increasing marginal rates:
Unreported income is the single largest reason that unpaid federal income taxes may amount to more than $600 billion this year, and more than $7.5 trillion over the next decade. It is a truly staggering sum — more than half of the projected federal deficit over the same period.
The government has a basic obligation to enforce the law and to crack down on this epidemic of tax fraud. The failure to do so means that the burden of paying for public services falls more heavily on wage earners than on business owners, exacerbating economic inequality. The reality of widespread cheating also undermines the legitimacy of a tax system that still relies to a considerable extent on Americans’ good-faith participation.
Proposals to close this “tax gap†often focus on reversing the long-term decline in funding for the I.R.S., allowing the agency to hire more workers and to audit more wealthy taxpayers. But Charles Rossotti, who led the I.R.S. from 1997 to 2002, makes a compelling argument that such an approach is inadequate. Mr. Rossotti says that Congress needs to change the rules, by creating a third-party verification system for business income, too.
The core of Mr. Rossotti’s clever proposal is to obtain that information from banks. Under his plan, the government would require banks to produce an annual account statement totaling inflows and outflows, like the 1099 tax forms that investment firms must provide to their clients.
Individuals would then have the opportunity to reconcile what Mr. Rossotti dubs their “1099New†forms with their reported income on their individual tax returns. One might, for example, assert that a particular deposit was a tax-exempt gift.
Mr. Rossotti has proposed that the I.R.S. require the new forms only for people with taxable income above a generous threshold. A bill including Mr. Rossotti’s plan, introduced by Representative Ro Khanna of California, sets that threshold at $400,000, to minimize the burden on small business. The money is undoubtedly in chasing wealthy tax cheats, but equity argues that business income, like wage income, should be subject to a uniform reporting standard. Small businesses ought to pay their taxes, too.
The proposal would not increase the amount anyone owes in taxes. It would, instead, increase the amount paid in taxes by those who are currently cheating.
Were it to accomplish that, I’d be in favor of it. I think we should enforce our laws. But it might have some unforeseen consequences as well since it places an additional premium on strategies which may or may not be available to us ordinary citizens for declaring income as not subject to tax. As such rather than generating additional revenue it might be a full employment program for tax attorneys and accountants.
There is a certain, irreducible amount of slip, waste, or fraud in any system. It is a kind of institution entropy, and it cannot be eliminated. To think otherwise is delusional, but the NYT owners, editors, and writer are delusional, if they are anything.
I have a strong suspicion that the leakage is mostly below the $400k threshold. An implication of the growth of the gig-economy or various forms of outsourcing is less wage income subject to traditional reporting. It looks like the initial proposal had reporting requirements for business income over $25k, so they got political pushback.
There are existing reporting requirements already: 1099-MISC (payments by business to individual); 1099-K (credit card / paypal transactions). The latter have not been fully pursued because of resource limitations which the IRS blames in part on large increases in other legislative demands, including COVID-19 relief.
I think in the end they would spend as much as they take in on investigations, unless they simply generate informational notices such;
The irs has been notified by bank of regular monthly deposits in the amount of—–, and will classify these as income unless you provide the agency with——-.
Most people I know are far more afraid of the irs than seems reasonable to me and may comply although the unbanked will remain just that.
If we want to have as much Government as we seem to want we will eventually need to institute a VAT. We’ve gone ahead and spent without provision or plan to pay so I think will soon realize small measures such as this will not suffice.
People with a more conservative bent say it’s not the amount of revenue collected that is problematic, but rather the extend of government spending (much of which is wasteful or misdirected) that should be examined and reduced.
Here, for instance, in CA the more taxes extracted from citizens the more social programs are created to absorb that money, with always a need for more. To make matters even worse are examples of the government’s reckless distribution of taxpayer funds, like the billions of dollars of EDD payments fraudulently doled out here that seem to be treated as simply a financial glitch with little pushback.
No, I think surveillance of bank accounts, hiring more IRS personnel to collect and squeeze more out of people making up for what the government thinks is owed them, is just adding a harsher Orwellian touch to what is already crushing the self determination soul of this country.
“Gig work†is fully wired.
Daughter earned $4,000. last year with Postmates.
They reported every detail to the IRS.
Can’t deduct the auto expense because it’s my car. She has to send in both employees and employers SSI. They don’t get a pass on taxes.
I think when the gig workers retire, it will be on disability.
Is this the equivalent to fraud and waste for the revenue side of the Federal ledger?
Here is quick plausibility test. 600 billion dollars is 20% of 2019 Federal tax revenues. Federal tax revenues were 16.5% of GDP. Federal revenues have been within a consistent range of 16-18% of GDP since the 1950’s.
Either that untaxed 600 billion dollars a year has been there since the 1950’s, or GDP (and GDP growth) is quite underestimated.
Since a GDP estimation error of 20% seems rather fantastical. If it has been there since the 1950’s it tells you it won’t be easy to tax.
And the highest they’ve ever been is 23.3% of GDP during World War II. Back then state and local taxes combined were about 6.25% of GDP. Basically, government at all levels has been unable to extract more than that.
Today state and local taxes are about 15% of GDP. That puts total federal, state, and local government as a percentage of GDP just about the same as Germany for which we’re getting a heckuva lot less than the Germans are.
I don’t much care what you attribute it to. There’s clearly something wrong.
Unfiled tax return does not mean unpaid taxes, and were those tax returns filed, many would receive a check from the government. Many people working on a cash basis would not meet the minimum earning threshold.
@jan
I have been thinking about you since @Dave’s anniversary post. I hope all is well with you, your husband, and son.
Thank you Tasty for your kind and caring words. My husband had an unexpected medical event last summer, which actually rattled and then rallied our family, and we have become a closer knit unit as a result. I guess one could say this is an example of a silver lining following something that challenged a loved one’s mortality.
I hope all is well with you and yours.
@jan
I am glad that he is better, and you have found the silver lining. I had a medical event which caused a cascade of events, and I am still looking for the silver lining. It is probably there, but I am still too bitter to accept it.
In the end, your family and close friends are all you have, like it or not.
Jan –
I missed the fact that you and yours had an issue. Whatever it is/was I wish you the best.
Tasty,
You seem like a resilient individual, equipped with enough wit and wisdom to find his way out of a self-described bitter frame of mind. I wish you all the best in making your way forward of any grief you have suffered. Also, I totally agree with what blessings good friends and family afford us during the times we are most vulnerable.
Illness overwhelms.
Caregivers too.
I make lists, thinking that if I don’t miss a step……
Get tired, fight back anger.
Catch myself, resolve again.
God Bless you with strength and the peace that passeth all understanding.