There’s a very interesting cross-blog conversation going on about the role of expertise and experts in foreign policy, particularly as they relate to the decision to invade Iraq and, presumably, to leave. Dan Drezner ably summarizes the conversation with many links and contributes materially. I don’t have a great deal to contribute to the discussion but I do have a question. Is the difference between experts and “experts”, a point made at Democracy Arsenal, something that can be determined before the fact? The structure of professional scholarship rewards specialization and there are actually rather few honest-to-goodness experts in any particular narrow area of specialization. Is an expert somebody who favors your preferred approach and an “expert” somebody who favors something else?
Here’s an example: Juan Cole of Informed Comment. Dr. Cole is a bona fide expert on certain Middle Eastern religious movements. IIRC in particular he is America’s preeminent expert on Shi’ism. He has some expertise in Arabic and Farsi and in Middle Eastern history and society, generally. I’ve seen his expertise in both of the latter areas debated bitterly by other people with expertise. However, he is not an expert on international relations, foreign policy, or military affairs. Is he an expert or an “expert”?
The dog in the manger on this discussion is that under our system it’s not what the experts, quoted or not, believe, think, or say that matters but what the amateurs do, think, and say, particularly the amateurs in the U. S. Senate. This is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future regardless of what technocrats might hope. In that context it remains a fact that every senator who was sitting in 2002 who is currently running for the presidency without exception voted in favor of the Authorization to Use Military Force. They’ve tried to explain their ways around it, blame somebody else, put it under the carpet, and apologize for it but the fact remains. IMO the experts and “experts” alike are, like the boll weevil, just lookin’ for a home. The real responsibility for good or ill lies with the political leadership and while it’s entertaining to debate whether you can trust the experts, it doesn’t really matter. What does matter is whether you can trust the political leadership and the answer is pretty clear: you can’t.
