The Distribution

I found these figures, cited in Doug Mataconis’s post about the fallout from the second round of Democratic presidential candidates’ debates at Outside the Beltway, amusing:

In the candidate preference part of the poll, the numbers break down like this:

  1. Joe Biden — 33%
  2. Bernie Sanders — 19%
  3. Elizabeth Warren — 14%
  4. Kamala Harris — 9%
  5. Pete Buttigieg — 6%
  6. Beto O’Rourke — 3%
  7. Cory Booker — 3%
  8. Andrew Yang — 2%
  9. All other candidates under 2%

for a couple of reaons. First, that’s a clear illustration of the “long tail phenomenon”. Second, as I learned back in the graduate level microeconomics course I took all those years ago, that sort of power law distribution is the same distribution as generally emerges in the distribution of market share among the members of a cartel.

3 comments… add one
  • jan Link

    So, why is Joe Biden doing so well among all the younger social progressive star power competing for the nomination? He’s older, optically as well as mentally, making all kinds of gaffes, carrying segregation, immigration, and China/Ukraine corruption baggage, and yet his numbers appear to hold on to the lead!

  • Grey Shambler Link

    I can try to guess, old as he is the is the only candidate representing the status quo before Trump. Obama’s coattails plus anger fatigue.

  • Andy Link

    From the Politico piece:

    “Still, only 4 in 10 Democratic voters said they watched at least one of the debates, despite 73 percent calling the debates either very or somewhat important to their decision about which candidate to support in the primaries.”

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