You might want to check in on Michael Barone’s analysis of the South Carolina primary results at Washington Examiner. It basically confirms what I’ve been warning about for some time—if Democrats are counting on the turnouts that elected Barack Obama to the presidency to bolster Hillary Clinton’s prospects, they might want to reconsider:
1. Clinton got many more votes from blacks this year than she did in 2008, but fewer blacks voted for her this year than voted for Obama in 2008. This is evidence that can be cited by those who have predicted that Democrats will have a hard time inspiring as many black voters to the polls in November than they did when the first black president was on the ballot.
2. Sanders did miserably among black voters. Historically, black Americans have tended to vote near-unanimously, in primaries and in general elections, for candidates they feel have the deepest commitment to civil rights issues. This is a rational response for people who feel themselves to be members of a minority that has been the object of discrimination and bad treatment.
American voters are now divided into three broad groups: Democrats, Republicans, and the disaffected. The outcome of the 2016 presidential election may well be decided by the disaffected.
“Historically, black Americans have tended to vote near-unanimously, in primaries and in general elections, for candidates they feel have the deepest commitment to civil rights issues.”
Hmmm… that doesn’t seem right to me. At least before 1970, the Republican party had the greater commitment to civil rights issues as reflected by votes for civil rights legislation, but black Americans consistently supported the New Deal Coalition. As far as intra-party competitions, it seems like they tend to vote for the traditional populists (Mondale and Clinton over Hart and Tsongas), without judging other contenders as not as supportive of Civil Rights.
Sanders was made to appear to be disrespectful of Obama, which simply made it too difficult to thread the needle as a populist promising improvement.
“Burn this bitch down!”