As promised here’s my assessment of the Democratic field. It’s a big field; I may have missed some. In the interest of brevity I’ve put it into tabular form and limited my comments to just a handful of criteria: the candidate’s name, age, baggage, and whether I am favorably disposed to the candidate. Some of the candidates are so unknown to me I simply have no opinion of them.
| Candidate | Age | Baggage | Favorably disposed |
| Michael Bennet | 54 | Who?; probably too centrist for today’s Democratic Party | X |
| Joe Biden | 76 | Age; his record; he’s not a good campaigner | X |
| Cory Booker | 49 | His imaginary friend | X |
| Steve Bullock | 53 | Probably too centrist to make it through the primaries; no foreign policy experience | X |
| Pete Buttigieg | 37 | Age and inexperience | X |
| Julián Castro | 44 | Identity politics | X |
| John Delaney | 55 | Who? | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 37 | Anti-“radical Islam”; opposed the Obama foreign policy | X |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 52 | Weathervane;DNC | |
| Mike Gravel | 88 | Age | |
| Kamala Harris | 54 | Willie Brown; her record as DA; will not rally the black vote as Obama did | |
| John Hickenlooper | 67 | Long last name; too moderate for primaries | X |
| Jay Inslee | 68 | Who? | |
| Amy Klobuchar | 58 | The staff abuse story | |
| Wayne Messam | 44 | Age;inexperience | |
| Seth Moulton | 40 | Age; inexperience | |
| Beto O’Rourke | 46 | Age; inexperience | |
| Tim Ryan | 45 | Age; inexperience | X |
| Bernie Sanders | 77 | Age; policies | |
| Eric Swalwell | 38 | Age; inexperience | |
| Elizabeth Warren | 69 | Age; inexperience; lying about ancestry for benefit; policies | |
| Marianne Williamson | 66 | Inexperience; policies | |
| Andrew Yang | 44 | Age; experience; one issue candidates have typically not fared well |
What leaps out to me about this list is that it has a notable gap. Most of the candidates are either under 45 or over 65. Historically, the “sweet spot” for Democratic presidential candidates has been 45-55 and that group is almost completely absent. That is the price that the Democratic Party is paying for the Obama presidency. Retail politics was not President Obama’s highest priority and, as a consequence, the party lost governors’ mansions, Congressional seats, and Senate seats occupied by people in that age group during his presidency. A number of the candidates have never won statewide elections and, in all likelihood, can’t even carry their home states.
Another gap is in foreign policy experience. For a job two of whose main components are as command-in-chief of the military and diplomat-in-chief that is not insignificant.
There is no perfect candidate here. Every one has some sort of baggage.
I cannot imagine myself voting for Marianne Williamson for president under any conceivable circumstances.
Update
If the Democratic Party had not changed since 2009, candidates like Hickenlooper, Bullock, and Bennet would be seen as viable but not only has the party changed positions, the typical Democratic primary voter probably will not vote for any of them if only because they’re white, male heterosexuals. If any of them had enormous name recognition and looked like shoe-ins to win the general election, they might have a chance. Barring that, they’re out.
I guess I’m going to have to do a better job keeping up on current events. I distinctly remember numerous media outlets and wise pundits proclaiming Michael Avenatti to be the leading candidate and just the man to stand up to Trump. Perhaps even the true Spartacus. Did something happen to him?
Looks like a pretty good list.
Personally, I don’t plan on monitoring candidates much until later this year. Fortunately, unaffiliated voters in Colorado can vote in a major party primary election (just one – can’t vote in both), so I’ll have the chance to vote in a primary for the first time in many years.
And now Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet has joined the race. He’s a moderate Democrat by today’s standards, with pretty mainstream Democratic policy positions. He’s got some executive experience in both the private and public sector and a lot of experience in politics. His foreign policy views don’t appear to be well-developed or very clear.
So another one that is unlikely to get much traction.
The list is missing Michael Bennet (US Senator), Steve Bollock (Governor), Andrew Yang (raises enough money to be in debates).
Yang is my mistake; I had my notes on him and just forgot to include him.
I’ll add all three.
My general reaction to him is that single issue candidates have never fared particularly well.
I believe Yang will stay in the race for a long time, even if he does not catch fire. Its about being the first serious Asian-American candidate, and Asian Americans are a big part of the Democratic coalition, especially on the West Coast.
Why is Gabbard’s views on foreign policy seen as baggage? Non-interventionism is generally a popular position.
I don’t think any prospective Democratic candidate who openly opposed Obama can make it through the primaries.
As Dave found out to his surprise once, I’m a registered Democrat whose parents were typical Jewish FDR Democrats…but the Democrat Party left me behind long ago although where I live it’s better to stay a Dem. Interesting comments as always Dave, but here’s my response; the Democrat nominee class really has limited issues and serious liabilities.
1) The Politics of envy, including reparations for slavery, free college, free medicare, free housing, guaranteed income, etc etc. I love Ocasio-Cortez’s answer when she was asked where the money would come from for these gimmees: “Oh, we’ll just print it!”
Margaret Thatcher’s justly famous remark about how Socialism’s big weakness is running out of other people’s money sooner or later applies. But there are a number of idiots and ne’er do wells who will always vote for more gimmes for themselves at other people’s expense.Not to mention illegal migrants in places like my home state, where voter fraud is endemic.
2) WE HATE DONALD TRUMP! How dare he win that election!
3)Identity politics, although the appeal might be limited to black candidates and perhaps not even be that all powerful since many blacks and Latinos really love the Trump economy and their new higher paying jobs. Remember, peace and prosperity, right? Also if Buttigieg is the nominee (or Cory Booker) many religious Catholics and black Christians may not vote for them. To a larger extent than many people realize, the Dems have already alienated a chunk of these groups.
4) Open borders and the aborting of not only the unborn but the newly born. There’s a lot of support for this in certain quarters and the DEm, no mater who it is wil have to support that.
5) The mainstream media’s dishonesty and outright partisanship have been revealed. The Dem’s media employees will still turn out but their effect has been considerably lessened.
6) America’s Jews and most Americans who support Israel are slowly but surely realizing that the Democrat Party has become the new home of an increasingly fashionable anti-Semitism. It isn’t even masked a lot of the time as ‘anti-Zionism’ like it used to be, although as any idiot knows, hating Israel is the equivalent of wanting 7 million Jews dead or homeless refugees. The defense of openly anti-Semitic congress members, boycotting of AIPAC’s annual conference by all of the candidates except Cory Boker for obvious reasons and various other signals are sending an increasing clear message, nicht wahr? While the Dems will still get Jewish votes (lemmings are rather stupid) they’re going to get less of them, especially against Donald Trump. And non-Jews who support Israel will do likewise.
My parents (Z”L”) weren’t just Democrats, but PASSIONATE Democrats. My mother was a delegate to the state conventions until she was no longer physically able to attend, The only two Dem presidential candidates they ever failed to vote for were Jimmy Carter’s second re-election attempt and George McGovern, and they were people that hated Nixon and Reagan. They were also passionate Zionists who were part of the generation that saw the results of the Holocaust firsthand and instinctively knew what a strong Israel was vital. There’s not a single Democrat on the above list they would have voted for. There are a lot of people, both Jewish and non-Jews who won’t either.
So based on this, here’s my own assessment:
The ones i see with the best chances to get the nomination are Bernie , Kamela Harris and Joe Biden. They are all putting out the same message. Buttigieg has a good shot at VP and is a dark horse simply because the media is concealing how awfully he’s performed as mayor of South Bend, which used to be quite a pleasant place to live but now has a surging crime rate, poor public service, a high rate of flight among those who can afford it, and even lousy water as well as a lot less job opportunities.
The only way I remotely see any of them becoming president is if there’s a black swan event like the economy mysteriously collapsing in an election year ala’ 2008, when Obama got elected. Funny how that happened right on time to get Obama in, isn’t it?
Unlike Bushy, Trump has a degree in economics, is a lot smarter and understands these things. Soros and Co. are a lot less likely to be able to pull it off again.
All Good Things As Always,
Rob
It might be generous to say I recognize eight of these names. As a registered independent, I don’t vote in primaries and will wait to see how it all flushes out.
I don’t usually hold my own policy disagreements against a candidate, particularly policies advanced for the primaries, that I don’t think stand a chance of becoming law because Congress wouldn’t implement them. Kind of a corollary to Dave’s point that foreign policy issues are the most important because the POTUS has the most power. For example, I don’t think Warren’s free college for everyone would ever go through Congress, so it’s hard for me to care much about it directly.
Rob:
My own view is that the Democrats cannot take the presidency without a substantial turnout and voting for the Democratic candidate by black voters. Like you I don’t think that blacks hate Trump as much as sitting Democratic congressmen or members of the press do.
In 2016 8% of blacks voted for Trump compared to 6% for Romney in 2012, 3% for McCain in 2008, and 11% for Bush in 2004. If Trump could peel off 15% of black votes it could be disastrous for the Democratic ticket.
There are presently two black candidates running: Booker and Harris. Each has certain problems including problems getting enough black votes. I think Booker is better for that.
” the typical Democratic primary voter probably will not vote for any of them if only because they’re white, male heterosexuals.”
I guess you know different people that I do. That may be an issue in some enclaves, but here in smaller cities and towns outside of NYC, San Fran/LA and Chicago, I dont think that applies much.
“Identity politics”
I can never figure out why this is only applied to Democrats. It has been an issue and a problem for much longer with the GOP and has only worsened.
Steve
As a general rule primary voters are the most energized and they’re energized because they’re radicalized. Said another way primary voters are frequently not representative of the party as a whole.
“Identity politics
I can never figure out why this is only applied to Democrats. It has been an issue and a problem for much longer with the GOP and has only worsened”
Perhaps I can assist you here Steve. While I’m no great fan of many Republicans, none of them has ever run as ‘the white candidate’ or had people say they voted for him or her simply because they were white. There is no Republicans only ‘White Caucus.’ There are no gerrymandered white GOP districts. And no Republican candidate has ever addressed blacks in a fake ‘African American accent as Hilary Clinton did, or told blacks that Republicans (how ironic given the history)would put them back in chains. It also isn’t common for Republicans to accuse their political opposition of being
‘ra-aaa-cists’ although I can think of a number of occasions where the accusation would fit.
Republicans also don’t make racially tuned promises as far as I know to one ethnic group like promising ‘reparations’ for people who were never slaves paid for, of course, by people who never owned slaves. Or promises of ‘amnesty’ or ‘open borders’ aimed at one particular demographic.
The Democrat Party routinely does all this and more. It’s their modus apperendi. And about the only thing they have except for the politics of envy and promising free gimmees to certain demographics, again at other people’s expense.
I trust this answers your question, Steve. I’m always here to help.
Regards,
Rob Miller
I would add that the worst fear of the Democratic Party should be that the Republican Party becomes the white people’s party. If it does, the Democratic Party is doomed.
Yes, the Republican Party is disproportionately white while the Democratic Party is disproportionately black. One is racist and the other isn’t? What tortured logic is that? It’s “heads I win tails you lose”.
My concern is that blacks insist on voting for black candidates while whites insist on voting for white candidates. We’re not far from that point, at least here in Chicago.