Larry Sabato makes his final pre-election prediction and it looks like things will go the Republicans’ way: 53-47 in the Senate, 243-192 in the House, but a net loss of three governorships. At the link there’s a race by race analysis and lots of pretty electoral maps and charts.
I think it’ll be closer than that but I think the final outcome will be close to that: the Republicans will control both houses of Congress and hold a majority of governorships. Here’s what Dr. Sabato says about the Illinois governor’s race:
We can’t quite believe it, but Gov. Pat Quinn (D) may actually survive. Despite ugly approval ratings, Quinn is running essentially even with businessman Bruce Rauner (R). Illinois is a blue state, and in what is pretty much a coin-flip, we’re taking Quinn. LEANS DEMOCRATIC
I believe that in Illinois everything depends on the turnout in Cook County. It will take a large enough turnout here to keep Gov. Quinn in office.
Rauner has, in my opinion, run a poor race. Too much time defending against the usual BS and not enough communicating a turnaround message. His advisors must have believed anyone but Quinn would work.
It shows just how strong that Democrat beacon inserted at birth is in Cook County.
If Quinn wins those who plan to stay in Il have just shot their dirks off. I will not be a resident of IL at the end of his term.
It also shows……
Afterthought. If you all haven’t heard, but makes sense to me, watch the canary in the mine called New Hampshire.
I think if Quinn wins it will be with less than 50% of the vote, and all eyes will turn towards the pro-life libertarian party.
Turnout seemed high at my polling place. Today is a state holiday, so there were a lot of government workers. More poll-watchers than normal. Reports from the poorer African-American precincts are turnout is lower than anticipated so far, possibly due to rain.
I drove by several polling stations today. Turnout was noticeably weak compared to 2012. Very weak, in fact. Will see if that holds up when the votes are counted.