Rather than repeat my old joke about the difference between conviction and commitment, I’ll just launch into a review of the reactions of Japan and South Korea to North Korea’s escalating provocations. If the editorials in the Japan Times and Korea Times are at all representative of those reactions, they are deeply conflicted to say the least.
Japan Times
North Korea must be stripped of the illusion that the U.S. can be decoupled from Japan and South Korea, its two Northeast Asian allies. Close coordination between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul is critical to the realization of that goal. Pyongyang’s dream is to divide our three nations; we must work harder to ensure that North Korea does not miscalculate or exaggerate its capabilities.
The existential threat posed by North Korea motivates virtually all South Korean presidents to visit the U.S. on their first overseas trip. South Korean President Moon Jae-in was no exception. Last week, he journeyed to Washington to meet President Donald Trump and ensure that their two governments are in sync in dealing with Pyongyang. Although problems may blossom over time, their meeting was, by all accounts, a success. While those two countries alone cannot solve the North Korean problem, a meeting of the minds is a necessary condition for success.
[…]
Trump tweeted after their dinner that the two men had a very good meeting, while Moon said in a joint appearance that he and Trump had forged a friendship of “deep mutual trust.†Speaking in the Rose Garden, Trump said that the U.S. “will always defend our allies.†According to their joint statement, the presidents “affirmed their commitment to fully implement existing sanctions and impose new measures†on North Korea. Moon also offered support for the Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure and engagement.â€
How that is translated into policy and how that balance is struck are unclear. For all the smiles, Moon and Trump see the North in fundamentally different ways. Moon would like to reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a North-South economic project that has been shuttered since February 2016, which would undercut U.S. efforts to force Pyongyang to negotiate. Trump’s insistence that North Korea is a regime that “has no respect for human life†and “no regard for the safety and security of its people or its neighbors†undercuts the logic of engagement that Moon has championed.
Korea Times
President Moon Jae-in’s peace proposal to North Korea in Berlin, Germany, indeed sounds hollow, considering the palpable tension on the Korean Peninsula following Pyongyang’s recent test-firing of what it claims to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
It is hard to miss a striking contradiction between Moon’s peace initiative and the joint condemnation he made at the same venue together with U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. So are the decades of efforts to deal with this pariah state that keeps coming back to haunt the world.
Now the world is preoccupied with this isolated state’s latest blackmail but, if the past is any guide, it will pass and a relative lull will ensue. Despite loud alarms, the latest rocket is short of a working ICBM that can deliver a miniaturized nuclear payload through the stress of re-entry through the atmosphere.
Both of these reactions strike me as containing hints of desperation. When will North Korea’s nuclear-armed ICBM program be a threat? When San Francisco is in ashes?
It seems to me that Japan and South Korea should be taking more active steps rather than merely counting on the U. S. to handle the situation for them. As I’ve written before if I were in South Korea’s shoes I’d think I’d be doing a lot of digging right about now.
The U.S. must be stripped of the illusion that North Korea can be decoupled from China and Russia.
I think a bit more nuance is needed; Japan and South Korea are not in the same boat.
Japan is cooperating as much as it can — But to do more brings significant downside to Japan and the US. Due to its constitution (that the US co-wrote), Japan can only do self defense, and any reasonable reading of self defense restricts what they can do militarily unless Japan is attacked. Beyond that, due to history, having Japan take a leading role in dealing with North Korea is very likely to cause a backlash that leads to even less help from China / South Korea and North Korea taking advantage. Now whether the history issue is fair or unfair to Japan is beyond a simple comment, but that is the reality.
On the other hand, South Korea is playing a dangerous game. More accurately the South Korean President. He’s trying to restart the sunshine policy at an inappropriate time, and after previous attempts failed. Also, by pausing THAAD deployment after Chinese threats on trade, he rated a trade relationship with the primary financier of North Korea over working with South Korea’s sworn ally. I don’t how to do this without making the North Korea situation worse, but the US needs to have a difficult conversation that South Korea can choose to be neutral, trade with everyone but not to expect American protection, or they can be an ally and value American protection over trade.
I had hoped to draw you out, CuriousOnlooker. I agree with your analysis of the situation WRT South Korea.
Thank you! That is great praise indeed!
I am interested in what you think Japan could do beyond what it is already doing?
Is it possible for Japan and South Korea to work well on this together? My sense from the Korean students we have known and worked with is that there is still a lot of resentment towards Japan. (Understanding that the n is not large and the subset coming to the US is not necessarily representative.)
Steve
CuriousOnlooker:
I agree that Japan is in a pickle. IIRC recently there has been some discussion of reinterpreting Japan’s constitution as allowing collective self-defense.
Given the historic context and still-raw wounds, I’m not sure what Japan can do other than strengthen deterrence and prepare for the worst. Even Japan’s participation in discussions can be problematic for China and both North and South Korea.
Steve:
It’s unclear to me why we should exert much effort to protect a South Korea that won’t exert any efforts to protect itself.