Some interesting observations from Charlie Cook:
It has long been my view that the final races rated as Toss Ups rarely split down the middle, they break in the direction of the last gust of wind occurring in the days before Election Day (or in more recent years with so many ballots cast early, election weeks) but that does not explain the streaky nature of this races, why the last four elections would behave differently from the previous four elections.
Given how Toss Ups have broken in the last four elections, coupled with polling continually understating Republican support, it is little wonder why Democrats are so anxious right now. For much of the last two years, this election was behaving as we have come to expect midterm elections, as a straight-up referendum on the incumbent president and governing party. In August and September however, after the Supreme Court reversed the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion decision, and after gas prices dropped from over $5 a gallon to under $4, it seemed to be more of a choice election. But over the last three weeks, it seems to have returned to the more conventional referendum dynamic.
How this election finishes is thus an open question. When does the curtain fall on this opera? The House, where individual races and candidates matter less and the behavior is more parliamentary, the outcome is very likely to be quite bad for Democrats. My personal hunch is Democrats suffer net losses of at least 20 seats, but in the Senate, the difference between either party picking up or losing a seat or two could easily be minimal. In the upper chamber, the party that wins three of the following four contests will be in the driver’s seat: the Democratic-held seats in Georgia and Nevada, and the two Republican open seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Referring to RCP.
Georgia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Washington(!), Ohio having Senate races within 4%; all within the standard error interval.
Those 8 races will determine Senate control.
I am obviously favoring what I’m labeling “new†Republican Party choices. These are more oriented to the populist movement growing within the old Republican Party. So, as I see those 8 races, listed by CO as determinative of how the Senate goes, only Washington State is less likely to turn republican – the 7 others seem to have a better chance of being won by a republican for several reasons:
1) More times than not undecideds vote for people not in power.
2) Pollsters are having difficulty with people not willing to work with them, making the true voting patterns really unknowable.
3) More people have come to the opinion that 2020 was compromised & are enthusiastic about righting a wrong.
4) Dems have misjudged the issues concerning most voters. Dems are also being cast as the villains behind our worsening economy.
5) 6 of the those 8 Senate republican candidates are fresh faces to politics. And, they all seem more authentic and less jaded or radical than their dem opponents.
+35 seats Senate: 52 Republican.