I’m still pondering the incipient budget deal that’s already been approved by the House. I have some questions. First, will the deal pass the Senate? Second, what do you think of it?
My tentative conclusion is that it’s the beginning of a return to the “Washington consensus”. Whether you think that’s good or bad depends on whether you think that consensus is working.
I don’t really have much of an opinion about the thing. My answers would be:
It will most likely pass the Senate after some Sturm und Drang.
I don’t really care. It contains a minimal increase in spending, but this is probably the best that can happen before a new Congress is seated in January of 2015.
My concern is that it appears that Boehner wants the decks cleared to push through amnesty and vast immigration increases. Because, you know, they haven’t crushed wages and employment enough. Nor have they torn at the social cohesion of the country enough. So in a Machiavellian sense, I should probably want them to keep fighting budget battles – less potential damage that way.
My overall thought is that over parts of the past decade, both parties have said (or even agreed – said at the same time) that our tax code is fundamentally flawed, that large parts of our government are inefficient and should be changed in form if not in funding level.
If the US government is a ship, then we’ve all agreed that we’re heading towards an iceberg. More recently, someone lit the fuse on a board on bomb the ship. We’ve put out the fuse, but are still heading towards the iceberg.
After a decade of trying, I think the message is that this ship is too big to steer (and the co-captains want to steer it in different directions).
I agree with Ice, that this budget was probably the best that could be agreed on, without more shutdowns etc. Neither the R’s or D’s want that — especially the R’s as they seem to want all attention aimed at the PPACA problems.
Consensus, though, is not a likely term to be used in this Congress, as there are too many breeches and differences. Ryan, who seems to be taking the lead in this budget decision, admits that the cuts do little to decrease the debt, and it’s far afield from what he sees as a plan to balance the budget. However, it does put fiscal issues on simmer, until the 2014 midterms can be strategized and determined. It also gives some stability to a business cycle that can rely on a year plus budget scenario, rather than the short term CRs that have been the staple for way to long in the Obama Administration. Ryan also seems reconciled to the reality that little can be done with the dems holding most of the cards of power.
I’m just happy there is a budget deal. As a federal employee, the uncertainty of the last couple years of short-term continuing resolutions was just plain bad. The endless budget drills and the inability to do any planning more than a couple of months out wasted a tremendous amount of time and resources. Some near-term certainty is a welcome change even if the details are less than satisfactory.
DC is not serious. In terms of a budget, it is all a sham. So it really does not matter if it is passed or not as all of the politicians are only concerned with power. The budget does not address any serious issues. For example, two things should be addressed: means testing to knock down the massive entitlement liability payouts and simplifying the corporate tax code to eliminate lobbyists. Never happen.
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I find all you say true. So I come to the conclusion that the deal was not economic, but purely political. A deal to not deal with finance, but to deal with the political reality of the looming budget /cap negotiation.
Pound ObamaCare.
Bringing this local…………I’m depressed. I just had lunch with a prominent political figure in IL and the undeniable comeaway is that we are absolutely effed. Quinn, a hapless idiot; might win again. (totally weird) Madigan etc just laughing.
Good news: Emanuel – he gone. Is anyone of means, like me, not preparing their exit strategy from IL? Our daughter is two years out, then whatever, Notre Dame, Miami of Oh, Clemson…who knows. I know we are preparing our summer plans (Wi or SW MI home) and Naples or Scottsdale for the cold. IL? We used to talk a downtown condo. Now? Eff you, we are gone before you implode. I never thought it would come to this. Never.
I can play golf on fabulous courses – tournament courses – in Scottsdale for 8 months a year. I can do Saginaw , MI for the balance. I guarantee IL will miss my taxes. These people are idiots who only look about 2-5 years ahead. I really hope you don’t live here when the shit hits the fan.
According to Bob Woodward, the main reason any budget deal was done was because Obama stayed out of it. He says that Obama is simply a poor negotiator.