The Big Problem

The big problem with Ryan Cooper’s ardent defense of the Green New Deal, expressed at The Week:

If we consider climate policy realistically, then that would clearly involve considering how big the problem is, reasoning from there how fast emissions need to come down, and then what policies could get us there. If the scientists are overstating their case, then why, and by how much? If the greens are wrong about policies, which ones are better? But Stephens does not discuss details in the slightest, only gesturing vaguely towards “large-scale investments in climate resilience, such as better coastal defenses.” How about it, Bret: Would it be cheaper to decarbonize the economy, or abandon the whole of the Miami metro area to the rising seas?

But conversely, this is why the Green New Deal framework makes so much sense. It starts with the problem — greenhouse gas emissions — and sets up a goal to get them down in time, while making society more egalitarian in the process. The policy space, therefore, is ecumenical. Nothing that cuts emissions is ruled out — leaving space for a carbon tax, subsidies for zero-carbon transportation, enormous investment in zero-carbon energy (including nuclear), and moon-shot research investments to develop zero-carbon industry and agriculture that could then be adopted worldwide.

I daresay it’s a fairly pragmatic approach. If you study the conclusions of climate science even cursorily, the truth is that we have procrastinated so long that we pretty much have to go full-tilt at everything with a decent chance of getting emissions down. Penny-ante political moderation can not possibly get the job done.

is that no amount of ideological purity is a viable substitute for what works. It’s hard to make a confident statement about the GND, pro or con, in the absence of specifics but here’s a specific: we can’t maintain a global economy or modern agriculture on the basis of 100% renewables. Said another way 100% renewables means hundreds of millions of dead and dying people. Germany’s all-renewables policy thrust is resulting in its producing more carbon emissions rather than fewer. Here’s another: unless China and India stop emitting carbon nothing we do will make a damned bit of difference.