The table above is taken from a post by Ray Dalio at, of all places, LinkedIn which I encourage you to read. After characterizing the Russian-Ukraine War as the “first battle for control of the world order” he writes that we can assess who is winning by the answers to three questions:
- How can we tell if Putin and Russia win or lose this battle?
- How can we tell how powerful American-led sanctions are?
- How can we tell how the sides are lining up?
The table is his preliminary answer to third question. I recommend reading the whole thing. Here’s a snippet worth reflecting on:
History has shown that when the causes people are behind are more important to them than the system (as they increasingly appear to be in the US), the system is in jeopardy. This risk to the internal system typically shows up in the form of growing populism of both the right and the left. Populists are not compromisers—they are win-at-all-cost people—so when they grow in power at the expense of the moderates who are inclined to compromise, the risks to the rule of law and the democratic system increase. By all measures these trends and the risks to the system have been increasing in the US and in some other countries.
I strongly suspect that’s how China’s President Xi sees things. Our system can be seen to be failing because of the obvious internal strife.
For my part I’m completely puzzled by what’s happening in the U. S. today. To my eye it appears that claiming victimhood appears to be the highest value. Historically, the way to rally Americans to a cause has been by appealing to “the better angels of our nature” rather than telling us that our nature was irredeemably damned.
Interesting article about Xi’s Gray Eminence at Palladium. We have been weighed and found wanting.
The link is broken.
If it’s an article about Wang Huning, I believe it’s important to understand the limits of the approach he used in studying America, namely, he wasn’t studying America but a particular segment of America. IMO his conclusions are largely right about that segment. If you truly want to understand America, I suggest that you drive.
Raw url: https://palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the-triumph-and-terror-of-wang-huning/
It is about Wang Huning, his influence in the inner circle and how he is removing Western influences from Chinese media etc. Proferred as a reminder that the rising hegemon has its own ideas on to do things.
Basically, the American military allies (by treaty) support American sanctions against Russia, and the rest of the world doesn’t. Moreover, no one supports embargoes of Russia fossil fuel exports.
The US has lost the sanction war, and maybe even the future. We are clearly a declining, failing power. Whether a nuclear world war can be avoided is the remaining question.
We desperately need a new De Gaulle in Europe, who can say NO! to the Anglos. Le Pen is the main hope for peace. God help her to win. Of course, the French are every bit as stupid as the Brits and we.
Dave Schuler: Historically, the way to rally Americans to a cause has been by appealing to “the better angels of our natureâ€
Lincoln’s call to “the better angels” was followed by his assassination, the failure of Reconstruction, and generations of continued racial oppression. Still, incremental progress was made—but it wasn’t pretty.