The Alaska Shouting Match

In his regular Washington Post column David Ignatius interprets the meeting between Chinese and American diplomats that took place in Alaska last week:

The Chinese initially appeared almost cocky in Anchorage, with Yang lecturing his hosts about the United States’ moral and diplomatic shortcomings. This message was probably intended to impress the domestic audience back in China about Beijing’s resolve. But behind this outward confidence, the Chinese seemed peeved that before the Anchorage meeting Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had traveled to China’s backyard to visit neighboring Japan and South Korea.

The Biden administration’s emphasis on “the Quad” — the informal U.S. partnership with India, Japan and Australia — has at least modestly bolstered the United States’ position in the region. India, in particular, has moved further and faster than U.S. officials expected. And Japan, though feeling its way under new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, remains a committed partner.

China faces a paradox in Asia: The stronger and more confident it becomes, the more it frightens its neighbors and pushes them toward Washington. That’s why the United States’ recent political disarray worries its Asian allies: Against a rising China, they don’t want to bet on a fading superpower.

That’s certainly one interpretation of the meeting but I think there are others. First, trying to put an opponent on the back foot is a pretty standard tactic in Chinese diplomacy. Keeping high-ranking U. S. officials waiting on the tarmc; sending lower ranking officials to meet with the president when he visits. I’ve made my own suggestions about counter-signalling but the White House pays no attention to me.

The Chinese leadership recognizes that the Biden Administration is sensitive about the events surrounding the election and its aftermath. They also think that the openness of our society and diversity are weaknesses rather than strengths. Of course they’ll probe along those areas. Whether they’re right about those things remains to be seen.

But I’m more concerned about what they do rather than what they say and I don’t believe their actions show as much confidence as their scolding of American diplomats might suggest.