As you are no doubt aware the power outages in Texas, caused by the cold weather, are the news of the day. Here’s how Reuters reports it:
LUBBOCK, Texas (Reuters) – A historic winter storm has killed at least 21 people, left millions of Texans without power and spun killer tornadoes into the U.S. Southeast on Tuesday.
The brutal cold has engulfed vast swaths of the United States, shuttering COVID-19 inoculation centers and hindering vaccine supplies. It is not expected to relent until the weekend.
Officials in Texas drew criticism as the state energy grid repeatedly failed, forcing rolling blackouts. Freezing weather stilled giant wind turbines that dot the West Texas landscape, making it impossible for energy companies to meet escalating demand.
I have read any number of different reactions to the story including
- Glee because Texas is a Red State. Serves them right.
- Texas is too dependent on wind power.
- Texas is too dependent on natural gas.
- Texas is too dependent on its state-run power distribution system.
- Individuals should be better prepared for such outages.
Unlike those who are glad that Texas is suffering, I don’t rejoice in anyone’s suffering. Unlike the most minarchist-minded, I think the pressures on private power companies and private distribution are such that resilience is rarely built in adequately. I don’t much care for the claim that people should be prepared better because it pretty much literally leaves the poor out in the cold.
I think it’s far too early to determine the underlying cause of Texas’s power woes but my intuition is that it’s a combination of the power distribution system and not enough reserve capacity full stop.
I am not sure how you plan for abnormally cold weather and a power outage. The Red State glee will soon wear off as more and more people realize that progressive science cannot violate the laws of physics.
… not enough reserve capacity full stop.
This has been the problem with the shortages for the past year. Just-in-time (JIT) for manufacturing, Certificate-of-Need (CON) for hospitals, and contracts for ‘reserve capacity’ save money, but when a widespread problem occurs, the system fails.
In many cases, ‘reserve capacity’ is a contract for additional supply from somebody else. Unfortunately, the somebody else has agreed to supply more than they have available, and conservative economics cannot violate the laws of physics.
My understanding is that Texas’s state-run grid is largely or entirely disconnected from those of the surrounding states.
It might have changed, but at one time, the country had several regions. The regions included all the transmission and distribution lines and the power plants. They were connected at specific points, and power could be transferred between regions.
I am surprised that fossil fuel power plants have not been built in Mexico, and the power sold in the US.
Well, I’m shocked that a government didn’t plan properly for a likely if infrequent outcome. See also California’s power system and the federal government’s pandemic preparation.
See for example this from the Washington Examiner:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy/how-and-why-a-nuclear-reactor-shut-down-in-texas-cold-snap-when-energy-was-needed-most
In the military, we used to call this the 7 Ps.
The government didnt design this at all, it was left to the private sector. The price of electricity was driven down by competition. It costs a lot to build enough capacity for unusual events, so they didnt build for that to keep costs down. Every source of power in the state had problems. We see these temperatures all of the time and dont lose power so it is possible to build and plan for this, it just costs more. So Texas has cheaper power than other places most of the time but at the cost of a few lives when they have a once every 10-20 years event. I am not going to gloat over this but I am not going to feel very sorry for them. They got what they paid for.
Steve
In this area, natural gas customers are being asked to lower their thermostat because the supply chain from Texas has destabilized. Blackouts in Western Missouri and Eastern Kansas as well. In Morton, IL, which has the largest municipal gas company in Illinois (and home to the bulk of Caterpillar white collar workers), customers have been warned their February bill could be five times a regular February bill. That could be a four-figure bill.
I also do not know all the ins and outs of the TX energy system architecture. But it does highlight , yet again, an issue facing us. Do we demand a riskless society? It appears we do, but very, very selectively. Covid? No risk allowed, no matter the cost. Cold weather? No risk allowed, no matter the cost.
But what kills about 10,000 people a year, many children. Drunk driving. What do we do with repeat offenders? Not much. How about all traffic accidents? Shall we drive in tanks at 10 mph because “if we save just one life…….”
I could go through a whole litany of examples, but why? The point is that in saner moments we recognize that designing around very rare events simply is not practical. It will be interesting to see what the fevers of the day dictate now. My vote is for all of Congress to be stationed at the northern TX border and facing south, bloviating about their solutions. That ought to be enough hot air.
“I am not going to gloat over this but I am not going to feel very sorry for them. They got what they paid for.”
By that logic, we shouldn’t feel sorry for medical providers who were too greedy to stock enough PPE for a pandemic. Or the people who died due to PG&E fires in California.
I have a great deal of sympathy for the people affected by this. Industry and government failed them.
As for the argument that “it was left to the private sector” that doesn’t apply to nuclear power plants which are highly regulated. And the one that had to shut down is majority-owned by the cities of San Antonio and Austin.
“The point is that in saner moments we recognize that designing around very rare events simply is not practical.”
If one knows that a design has a certain weakness, then one should have contingency plans when that eventuality crops up.
Also, if industry and government are going to make promises about safe, reliable, and cheap power to the people they serve, then they should be expected to deliver on those promises. If the system design has a weakness, then scale promises accordingly. Expectations management 101. Perhaps the lawsuits that will come out of this will force needed adjustments.
“By that logic, we shouldn’t feel sorry for medical providers who were too greedy to stock enough PPE for a pandemic.”
You actually think that providers get to decide how much to spend on PPE, or almost anything in a hospital that is related to safety? They dont, or at least not in any hospital of which I am aware. Besides which there was supposed to be a national stockpile. How many local hospitals knew that the stockpile was depleted? I would guess about zero?
The California fires? Ok, I didnt feel all that sorry either for people who built their mansions in high risk areas. For that matter I dont feel all that sorry for people who build their mansions on the beach in hurricane areas. I have no idea why we subsidize those people. OTOH, people in towns where they didnt build fancy houses in high risk areas, those people I do feel sorry for as it was not especially foreseeable and its not like they lived in 70 year old $100,000 homes as a lifestyle statement.
But in the case of Texas they made a trade off. They benefitted from having lower electricity prices. For a long time. They knew that when, not if, they had a cold snap they would lose power. They knew this would happen. So what happens from here? My best guess is that they dont really change much. Losing power for a week and losing a few lives wont matter as much as having a bit cheaper power the rest of the time.
Steve
“If one knows that a design has a certain weakness, then one should have contingency plans when that eventuality crops up.”
In the case of TX, that would be warming shelters. Do we have the will? In the case of drunk driving deaths it would be suspending licenses and prison. Do we have the will? We selectively choose our risk management efforts.
I hate to tell people this, but airplanes are riddled with defects, cracks and such. Engineering materials choices, redundancy, preventative maintenance, design that chases propagating cracks into areas that can be inspected etc etc are all used to avoid catastrophic failure. But its not foolproof. I don’t know what the contingency would be.
In the case at hand, it turns out that TX’ proportion of nuclear and natural gas electricity production has been rock steady the past 15 years. Coal and wind have dramatically changed, going from 37%/2% to 18%/23%. The article I was reading earlier tonight suggested that roughly half the windmills froze up, and as tasty has pointed out, you don’t just flip the fossil fuels switch on.
Sounds like in the zeal to “go green” some things were, ahem, overlooked. Its always sumthin’……………..
“…combination of the power distribution system and not enough reserve capacity full stop….”
Right both times, along with a shortage of natural gas and poor planning.
Sweden, Canada, northern US states also have wind turbines but they build ones that will work in cold weather. Texas did not. Those countries also build gas plants, nuclear and coal plants that do not fail in cold weather. Texas did not. The common theme is that Texas did not spend the extra money to be prepared for the cold.
Listening to the ERCOT guy on the way to work it sounds as though they may have record levels of electricity demand. Even if every source of electricity in Texas was functional they might still have had issues, but it would have been less. They could have arranged for back up from other grids if needed, but that is another issue and probably would have cost more money.
Steve
steve, that comment touches on a point I have made again and again. What works in California won’t necessarily work in Minnesota. What Europeans and some Americans fail to understand about the U. S. is that our climate and our country more generally is harsher than nearly all of Europe. Much of this country has both colder temperatures and hotter temperatures. Only Russia is comparable.
In Germany, for example, rather few homes have central heating and the alternative they’ve chosen for heating, burning compressed wood pellets, is only carbon neutral if you make some assumptions that are manifestly untrue. Practically nobody has or needs air conditioning in the summer in Germany.
In Florida and much of California you don’t need central heating but without air conditioning it is barely livable. Our distances are far greater than theirs. I know people who commute, effectively, the distance from London to Sheffield or Paris to Nantes on a daily basis. That’s unthinkable in Europe. That affects the cost of “going green”. Expectations should be adjusted accordingly.
Dave- The technology, wind turbines and power plants, work in Canada and the northern USA. The issue is not that the tech wont work in Texas but rather that they didnt want to spend the money. The result was that they got much cheaper electricity for a long time but now some people will be cold and some people have died. Its all about the trade offs in this case not that stuff wouldnt work. (The temps they were seeing would not be extraordinary in most of Canada, here in PA where we have wind turbines or Minnesota which has lots of wind power. )
Steve
I wasn’t suggesting it wouldn’t work only that it would be more costly. Solutions should be prudently tailored to local conditions. “One size fits all” is either overly costly or will achieve less than a more tailored solution.
Texas is practically a worst case. They have everything there: blizzards, blistering heat, high winds, tornados, hurricanes, floods, you name it. They even have earthquakes as the people of Austin learned recently.
As I have said repeatedly minarchy bears certain risks. Centralized government bears other risks. The art of governance is in steering between those two extremes.
My remarks are heavily addressed to people who contend if it works in France (or Germany or China, etc.) it should work here, too.
There should be perspective.
I know anything that does not happen in the US is ignored, but in 1998, the famous Quebec Ice storm happened.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977
Quebec winters are nothing to laugh at (they may even be worse then Chicago winters), and Quebecers spend a lot of money preparing their infrastructure for winters. Hydro-Quebec is also State-owned and lavished with resources since it is a key tool in keeping Quebec autonomous within North America.
Nonetheless Quebec suffered a massive power outage from the storm where half the population lost power, and the Montreal skyline went dark.
There will be lessons out of this — but one cannot be hardened against any eventuality.
steve,
‘”But in the case of Texas they made a trade off. They benefitted from having lower electricity prices. For a long time. They knew that when, not if, they had a cold snap they would lose power. They knew this would happen. So what happens from here?”
The point is that the people of Texas trusted that their government regulators and power companies were competent enough to plan and prepare for something like this. The benefit of cheaper electricity came with a cost and risk the people of Texas didn’t know about or understand.
Likewise, hospitals and medical providers made their own tradeoff and trusted that the federal government had planned and prepared for a pandemic. Hospitals saved money and increased profits by assuming they didn’t need to keep higher stocks of supplies, etc. They made similar assumptions that the federal government had the ball.
I don’t see how you can logically say the citizens of Texas deserve what they got while the medical system is an innocent victim.
I take much different view in that I’m sympathetic to the people affected by these events and see them both as systemic and governance failures.
And I don’t think the lack of power is going to be the biggest story in Texas. Building codes in much of the state – like a lot of the southern tier – have exposed plumbing. There are already reports of tens-of-thousands of plumbing breaks from frozen pipes which could lead to a shortage of potable water. That would be true even if the electrical system was fully up and running.
And one final note – several of the windfarms that serve Colorado and Wyoming also froze up. The backup natural gas plants did not have enough fuel to meet demand because gas company – rightly – prioritized delivery to customers because natural gas is the primary heating source. The electrical company was able to prevent blackouts by asking customers to cut back on electricity use – and they did, by almost 20%.
Here in my own area of Colorado, we got down to -15 which broke an 1895 record. The local electrical provider reported that demand broke an all-time record. The natural gas provider said demand almost broke the all-time record.
This wasn’t just a cold snap – it was a historic event like the pandemic.
Unfortunately, it’s human nature to only make significant reforms after significant failures. Unfortunately, it’s also true that those reforms often don’t stand the test of time.
“Here in my own area of Colorado, we got down to -15 which broke an 1895 record”
This is where it gets complicated.
If the cold snap is a 1 in 100 year event; where the costs is rolling outages for a week; that’s well within the intended design of an electrical grid that is for “3 9’s” (99.9%) uptime — in 100 years, you would expect the grid to be down about 36 days.
There are other 1 in 100 year events that I would prioritize in terms of grid resiliency. Such as a “Carrington event”
https://www.businessinsider.com/massive-1859-solar-storm-telegraph-scientists-2016-9
Someday, the Sun is going knock out every satellite and much of the global grid for months.
I believe Texas and other states can do more to be resilient against a cold snap; but the amount that makes sense probably wouldn’t be enough for a 1 in 100 year event that this was.
Another thing I think is lost in all this is societal resiliency for when the gird goes down. In the end, the grid will go down someday for some reason.
Andy:
I’m pretty cynical about the mass migration of Americans southward. IMO there are reasons that some places in North America have always had large populations while others have traditionally had small ones. So, for example, the places where Boston, New York City, and St. Louis were built have had significant populations for as long as the archaeological records have been able to determine. The LA basin has had a scanty population until the 20th century. Miami has had a small population until the second half of the 20th century.
No one knows for sure but the entire population of what are now the U. S. and Canada has been estimated at about 5 million people prior to first contact with Europeans. Most of those people lived in traditional population centers. To the best of my knowledge nowhere in the Deep South was there a truly large population center. Around the Great Lakes, along the East Coast, and in the St. Louis environs is another story. BTW Washington State is one of the areas that has had a large population for at least the last millennium.
I’ve been to Texas many times. IMO the weather and climate are terrible for much of the state. Extremely harsh. That’s part of the reason Texans have a reputation for toughness. Like much of the rest of the South, a good deal of the present population is composed of newcomers. Sounds like the state was not ready for them.
CuriousOnlooker:
IMO the larger question is whether Texas should have a large population cf. above.
“I don’t see how you can logically say the citizens of Texas deserve what they got while the medical system is an innocent victim.”
What you initially said was providers. By and large providers dont make decisions about what to buy and quantities. That is done by administrators. If you want to change it to medical systems then you have a better case. Providers would have wanted more PPE. Administrators wanted less. So if providers were ordering stuff and decided to skimp so they could have larger salaries I think your case holds, but that is not the case.
“Building codes in much of the state – like a lot of the southern tier – have exposed plumbing.”
Why do they do this? Because it is cheaper. It sounds like their coal plants and nuclear plant also had exposed pipes. Stuff froze. So I agree that it can always get cold enough to defeat precautions. Also insulation can break down over time or their can be faults in how it is used. However, this was a pretty large scale event and it is pretty clear, I think, that there was little attempt to winterize.
And to be clear, I sympathize with people who have real losses, I am just not going to get that upset since they have benefitted from their choice for so long. How many Texans felt sorry for us in PA who have electric bills since we do winterize (and I dont mean snarky feeling sorry)?
Steve
The same reasons it’s the case in Los Angeles despite the reality that temperature of 25°F or lower are not outside the realm of possibility there. It just doesn’t seem likely.
But things change. If Los Angeles were to get such temperatures, I will probably be able to hear the howls of anguish from Chicago.
Tying this to my earlier observation in 1492 the population of what was to become Los Angeles County was probably fewer than 500 people. The population of the area had fluctuated over time but it had been thousands of years since there was a substantial population there.
It is an interesting take on carrying capacity; but perhaps it needs two modifications.
One is adjustment for technology / human “terraforming”. Over a thousand years, the carrying capacity of Holland went from 0 (underwater) to the highest in Europe from reclaiming land. Pre-European contact, Native Americans did not have the technology to unlock much of the potential of the South (controlling the Mississippi river), or the agricultural tools from the old world.
Second is the elimination of tropical diseases. As an example, Chinese civilization expansion south of the Yellow river was a glacial process that took a millennia because of the tropical diseases that were common there. Diseases is a carrying capacity limit and it applied to the American South as well. The elimination of tropical diseases endemic to the South after WWII is as big a game changer as Air Conditioning.
In all, I am not sure that pre-WWII population patterns in North America can inform us of the relevant carrying capacity limits of today.
The baseline carrying capacity tells you about the costs of living in certain places. Florida, for example, is unlivable at least during some parts of the year without air conditioning. That means that air conditioning and the electricity to run it is part of the cost of living. However, you rarely need central heating which lowers the cost of living.
In many parts of the country water is the limiting factor. In the southwestern United States there are already contests between states on the limited available water, who gets it, and how it an be used. With unlimited free energy we could probably be desalinating sea water. But we don’t have unlimited free energy. There are presently no technological solutions to the limited supply of water.