Terms of Surrender

I think the reality of the truce that has been negotiated in Syria is being widely misreported in the Western media. Here’s the story, as reported by the BBC:

The US and Russia have announced that a planned cessation of hostilities in Syria will come into effect at midnight on 27 February.

Their statement said the truce did not include so-called Islamic State (IS) and the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.

World powers agreed on 12 February that a truce would come into effect within a week, but that deadline passed and scepticism remains over the new plan.

[…]

Separately, Syria’s government has called a parliamentary election for 13 April. The last was in 2012 and they are held every four years.

The White House said that President Barack Obama had phoned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at Mr Putin’s request to discuss the efforts to establish the cessation of hostilities.

After their phone call, the joint Russian-US statement was released.

The truce applied to “those parties to the Syrian conflict that have indicated their commitment to and acceptance of its terms”, the statement said.

This excluded IS, Nusra and “other terrorist organisations designated by the UN”.

Air strikes by Syria, Russia and the US-led coalition against these groups would continue, the statement read.

It said that armed opposition groups taking part would have to confirm their participation by midday on 26 February.

Russian and Syrian planes would halt any attacks on the armed opposition groups.

My interpretation of this is that the terms of surrender of the “moderate opposition” in Syria have been negotiated. DAESH and the Al Nusra Front, the two largest and most powerful opposition groups, are explicitly excluded from the deal. Russian bombing of these groups will continue.

If the other opposition groups join the truce, it will enable Russia and the Syrian government to focus on the greater threats which should be welcome to everybody except, possibly, Turkey and the Gulf States who’ve been supporting DAESH all along. Whether the U. S.-supported Kurds will join the ceasefire is an open question but I would assume that they’re a major source of concern for the Turks.

You should take a look at the map depicting where airstrikes have been taking place. IMO it reveals the Russo-Syrian government strategy pretty clearly. Consolidate the populated areas of the country under government control. Cut off the Al Nusra Front and DAESH from Turkish supply lines. Create chokepoints. Encircle the chokepoints with ground troops to reduce the enemy.