The irony of this post by Geoff Cooper at RealClearEnergy was not lost on me:
In the 15 years since the RFS was expanded, the amount of U.S. cropland has continued to shrink, grasslands and forests have increased, and the volume of animal feed grain and exports has risen—all while renewable fuel production has tripled.
How is that possible? Through innovation, greater productivity, and an unwavering commitment from American farmers and biofuel producers to use sustainable practices.
Farmers today grow nearly 20% more corn per acre than they did when the RFS was created. Thus, less land is required to produce the crops needed for renewable fuels. In 2022, farmers planted five million fewer corn acres (an area the size of New Jersey) than they did in 2007, but produced a corn crop that was 5% larger. Meanwhile, ethanol producers squeeze 10% more ethanol out of every bushel of corn than they did 15 years ago.
To me this illustrates that technological improvement is a two-edged sword, at least if your objective is to reduce carbon emissions. It doesn’t just result in better batteries; it also allows farmers to grow corn more efficiently.
That sounds like a good illustration of Jevons Paradox to me. Articulated more than a century ago, the paradox is that the more efficiently a resource is used (or produced) the more it will be used.
